Algeria: Abdelmadjid Tebboune is next President. But for how long?

Algeria held elections for president this past Thursday. Abdelmadjid Tebboune won the election with 58% of the vote. The BBC has the following:

Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets of the Algerian capital, Algiers, in protest at the results of Thursday's presidential election. . . . Polling day itself was marred by protests and calls for people to boycott the election.

. . . "The vote is rigged. Your elections are of no concern to us and your president will not govern us," demonstrators chanted in central Algiers on Friday.

. . . Mr Tebboune rose from a long career as a civil servant to become prime minister in 2017 but lasted just seven months after falling out with influential businessmen. He also served as housing minister and information minister.



Here's a couple Al Jazeera articles:

This had the following:

Authorities said 40 percent of voters had taken part in Thursday's election, which state media cast as a high enough turnout to vindicate the decision to hold the poll, in spite of protesters' call for a boycott . . . The authorities, including the powerful army, argue that the only way to move the country forward after demonstrators brought an end to Bouteflika's 20-year rule in April is to elect a successor.

. . . Even without questions over his legitimacy, Tebboune will face difficult times. Nearly all Algerian state revenues come from oil and gas exports, which have declined in both price and volume in recent years. The government has already approved a 2020 budget with a nine percent cut in public spending, though politically sensitive subsidies remain untouched.

While this one stated:

His tenure as prime minister, which began in May 2017, ended abruptly after less than four months, reportedly due to his alleged attempt to present himself as a successor to Bouteflika during a meeting with his French counterpart, Edouard Philippe, in Paris days before his dismissal.

However, Tebboune, who is close to powerful army chief General Ahmed Gaid Salah, has in recent months sought to distance himself from what he described as the "gang". His disdain for oligarchs in Bouteflika's inner circle - businessmen who were awarded lucrative state contracts - has won him praise among some Algerians.

One question that comes up via a discrepancy between BBC and Al Jazeera is: why exactly was Tebboune forced out? Was it because he had a falling out with business leaders (BBC) or because he got ahead of himself politically (Al Jazeera)? It could be both, of course.

Al Jazeera notes that he is close to General Salah. I wonder if the goal of the army is to have Tebboune allow the army to keep their current perks, but have him crack down on business leaders. Perhaps they hope this will be a type of reform compromise for the protesters: leave the army alone, but go after corrupt business leaders. Based on the protests during and after the elections, it doesn't seem to be working.

Al Jazeera also makes a quick note that Algeria's government has revenue problems. Via OilPrice, IEA (International Energy Agency) sees a supply glut in 2020. This won't do much for Algeria's revenue issues as it is mentioned that oil and gas exports drive government revenues. When revenues are down, it makes it hard to invest in capital projects when the revenues are needed by the government. This, of course, leads to continued decline in production.

Events might get interesting in Algeria as the protesters are not buying the results.