Libya: Haftar in Tripoli - World Powers Standing on the Sidelines?

The Libyan National Army (LNA -- power base in Eastern Libya) is now fighting in Tripoli.

From Reuters:

Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), which is allied to a rival administration in eastern Libya, mounted an offensive on Tripoli three weeks ago but has failed to breach defenses in the city’s south despite heavy fighting. The battle for the capital has all but wrecked U.N.-backed efforts for a peace deal between the rival factions and threatened to further disrupt Libya’s oil industry.

One thing I've mentioned in previous blog posts on the subject of the LNA launching an attack on Tripoli I just didn't see this as some easy victory for the LNA (unless the LNA was really able to buy the support of various militias around Libya; currently, it would seem this support isn't at the level needed).

Los Angeles Times Festival of Books. Exposing Truths: The Stories Affecting America

I went to the LA Times Festival of Books (April 13-14). I'll be posting my notes on the various panel discussions I attended.

The first panel discussion I attended was "Exposing Truths: The Stories Affecting America."

Here are edited panelist biographies via the LA Times website. 

Mona Hanna-Attisha. Author of What the Eyes Don't See, a first-hand account of the Flint water crisis, Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha is an associate professor of pediatrics and human development at Michigan State University.

Eliza Griswold’s latest book, "Amity and Prosperity," was released in June 2018. It recounts the true story of how fracking shattered one Pennsylvania town, how families brought it to light, and how, after years of fighting against the abuses of the oil and gas industry, the people finally prevailed.

Beth Macy is the author of three New York Times-bestselling books. Her latest book, "Dopesick: Dealers, Doctors, and the Drug Company That Addicted America," is short-listed for the Carnegie Medal and was described as a "masterwork of narrative nonfiction" by The New York Times.

And the following are my notes from the panel discussion:

Wall Street Journal: Public Pension Problems

The Wall Street Journal recently had an article up on government pensions. The basic direction is that even though we've had a significant bull market, public pensions are still having issues.

Liabilities of major U.S. public pensions are up 64% since 2007 while assets are up 30%, according to the most recent data from Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research . . . In the 1980s and 1990s, double-digit stock and bond returns convinced governments they could afford widespread benefit increases . . . The Illinois Supreme Court in 2015 threw out cuts by the legislature that were expected to save tens of billions of dollars . . . The Maine pension fund, which back in the early 1980s assumed a long-term investment return of 10%, now assumes a rate of 6.75%. If that rate were just 1 percentage point higher—where it was about 10 years ago—the projected $2.9 billion shortfall, most of which must be paid off over the next decade, would drop by more than half to $1.1 billion.

Algeria and Sudan: Populist Uprisings and the Military

The LA Times and The Atlantic both take a look at recent events in Algeria and Sudan where protests have recently occurred and presidents have fallen. Both presidents have been pushed out by the military. The LA Times takes a more negative view of recent events while The Atlantic takes a more positive view.

Until events go in a different direction, I believe the LA Times slant is more accurate:

“There’s definitely an effort on the part of the old regimes to maintain power, just as we saw in the previous rounds of uprisings in Egypt and elsewhere,” said Timothy Kaldas, a nonresident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, in a phone interview on Friday . . .  Meanwhile, Western nations, wary of the post-2011 turmoil that brought the rise of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, and millions of refugees to Europe’s shores, appear likely to fall in line, despite their lip service in support of democratic reform.

Libya: Haftar March to Tripoli Supported by the Saudis?

Per the Wall Street Journal, but quoting from Al Jazeera as I don't have a subscription to the Wall Street Journal:

Days before Libya's renegade General Khalifa Haftar launched an offensive on the country's capital, Tripoli, Saudi Arabia offered tens of millions of dollars to help pay for the operation, the Wall Street Journal has reported . . . Citing senior advisers to the Saudi government, the Journal said the offer of funds - accepted by Haftar - was intended to buy the loyalty of tribal leaders, recruit and pay fighters, and other military purposes.

I have held the position that Haftar was just bluffing. His allies (United States, France, Britain, Italy and the United Arab Emirates) were telling him to halt his advance. There were other coastal cities in Libya (Misrata and Zawiya) that were coming to the aid of Tripoli.

Algeria: President Abdelaziz Bouteflika forced out of power

Quick summary of what is going on in Algeria:

Protests are currently ongoing in Algeria. The protests revolve around demands for their President, Adbelaziz Bouteflika, to resign and be replaced. He has been the president since 1999, two decades. He suffered a stroke in 2013 and has rarely been seen in public. He decided to run for a fifth term, which resulted in the protests.

With that . . .

On Tuesday (April 2nd), Lt. Gen. Ahmed Gaid Salah, the army chief of staff, told President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to leave office.

This is only my second blog post on Algeria and in my first one I speculated that the military would wait until they had a successor in place who would be acceptable to both the elite and the protestors. I guess not.

Libya: Haftar currently heading to Tripoli

I don't know much about Libya. I recently argued that Haftar (leader of the Libyan National Army - LNA) was simply trying to negotiate a higher percentage of the oil revenue with his threats of marching to Tripoli. Other than wanting more oil revenue, I felt there were two drawbacks to him marching on Tripoli: first, various nations that back the LNA are telling Haftar not to march on Tripoli; second, various cities around Tripoli are not eager to support Haftar. Oh well, currently, it looks like his troops are on the march towards Tripoli.

Al Jazeera has the following:

"Haftar would like to force the hand of the UN and those attending in a way that does not exclude him, fearing that this conference may start a whole new path for Libya in the next few years and that he may not be included in that process," said Hafed Al Ghwell, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins University.

IMO 2020: Council of Economic Advisers

Oil Price has an article up from Economist Philip Verleger where he discusses IMO 2020. IMO 2020 is the new fuel standard issued by the International Maritime Organization that starts in January 2020. It requires the sulfur content used by ships must be at 0.5 percent. Current limits are at 3.5%. Verleger believes that a large disruption will result due to this transfer. His article looks at a recent report from the Council of Economic Advisers. The key quote from the CEA report can be found on pages 294/295.

The shortfall will likely trigger higher prices, though estimates of price shocks to fuels including diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel vary substantially.

The reason behind this is that they see a short-fall ranging from 0.2 MMbpd to 0.6 MMbpd. I'm not exactly sure how they're coming up with that range.

Algeria Protests: Military Position

Protests are currently ongoing in Algeria. The protests revolve around demands for their President, Adbelaziz Bouteflika, to resign and be replaced. He has been the president since 1999, two decades. He suffered a stroke in 2013 and has rarely been seen in public. He decided to run for a fifth term, which resulted in the protests.

As Al Jazeera wrote:

Despite his ailing health, Bouteflika continued enjoying the support of Algeria's powerbrokers, including the military, and went ahead to win presidential elections in 2014. 

So though I don't know anything about what is going on Algeria (as this is my first blog post ever on Algeria), I have to suspect that there is a high degree of corruption going on in the country.

It appears that the military in Algeria holds a large amount of power. Below I have various quotes from three articles.