Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Libya: Haftar March to Tripoli Supported by the Saudis?

Per the Wall Street Journal, but quoting from Al Jazeera as I don't have a subscription to the Wall Street Journal:

Days before Libya's renegade General Khalifa Haftar launched an offensive on the country's capital, Tripoli, Saudi Arabia offered tens of millions of dollars to help pay for the operation, the Wall Street Journal has reported . . . Citing senior advisers to the Saudi government, the Journal said the offer of funds - accepted by Haftar - was intended to buy the loyalty of tribal leaders, recruit and pay fighters, and other military purposes.

I have held the position that Haftar was just bluffing. His allies (United States, France, Britain, Italy and the United Arab Emirates) were telling him to halt his advance. There were other coastal cities in Libya (Misrata and Zawiya) that were coming to the aid of Tripoli.



Were his allies really against his advance or are the Saudis going off on their own, ignoring the US, France, Britain, Italy and the UAE? It would be interesting to know, which militias around Tripoli were paid off by Haftar

The article goes on to say that Haftar's warplanes are operating around Tripoli. We know that French aircraft operate in Libya (The Guardian). If the French were really against his advance, I would assume we'd be reading about how French aircraft were -- at a minimum -- trying to interfere with the air operations.

The New York Times lists who is siding with Tripoli:

Cities of Zintan and Misrata

Warlord Salah - to me, this is interesting. Back in December, Reuters stated that, "Badi, under U.S. and U.N. sanctions for his Al Somoud brigade’s attacks on Tripoli, said the international community had helped install militias that mixed the “tyranny” of the Gaddafi era with Salafist ideology from Saudi Arabia." Is this the case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend? For Badi, is Haftar worse than Tripoli?

Brigade Defend Benghazi - in mid-2018, they attacked oil ports near Benghazi that were controlled by Haftar.

Ziad Bellam, a leader who fought Haftar in Benghazi

Will any of those cities, militias, leaders be bought off? From what I can tell, there is bad blood between Haftar and at least some of those on the New York Times list. It will be interesting to follow this out. And how will things play out if Haftar does enter Tripoli? Will there be street fighting? We all know how Mosul went. Fighting in Tripoli could be costly to the militias as well as the citizens of the city.


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