From Reuters:
Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), which is allied to a rival administration in eastern Libya, mounted an offensive on Tripoli three weeks ago but has failed to breach defenses in the city’s south despite heavy fighting. The battle for the capital has all but wrecked U.N.-backed efforts for a peace deal between the rival factions and threatened to further disrupt Libya’s oil industry.
One thing I've mentioned in previous blog posts on the subject of the LNA launching an attack on Tripoli I just didn't see this as some easy victory for the LNA (unless the LNA was really able to buy the support of various militias around Libya; currently, it would seem this support isn't at the level needed).
Shifting subjects to this post's title: it seems clear that the US and Europe aren't standing in Haftar's way. They're making statements, but not taking any action. In fact, the US pulled some troops from Libya.
Here's a quote from Al Jazeera (April 8):
The United Kingdom called an emergency Security Council meeting on Friday night, which resulted in a statement calling on Haftar to "halt all military advances", after Russia and France insisted on minimal pressure on the LNA. Meanwhile, the US pulled out some of its troops stationed in Libya.
Why might world powers be on the sidelines? I think the US and Europe might have different reasons for hoping that Haftar topples the UN backed government in Tripoli:
For the US and President Trump, it comes down to oil. Re-read that quote from Reuters: . . . and threatened to further disrupt Libya's oil industry. Via The Arab Weekly we have this speculation that has floated around various sites due to a call that President Trump made to Hafter:
In a White House readout of the April 15 call, which was not reported until April 19, Trump “recognised Field-Marshal Haftar’s significant role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya’s oil resources.”
Fourth, there is likely an Iran angle to this story. With Bolton pushing hard for a worldwide embargo on Iranian oil exports, especially now that the administration has announced there would be no more sanctions waivers granted to countries purchasing Iranian oil, he understands that other countries need to pump more oil to make up for any shortfall in order to keep prices stable.
If President Trump thought that this would be an easy victory for Haftar and that Libya would be able to pump more oil to partially off-set Iran's oil exports, he is probably wrong. Even if Haftar eventually wins power over all of Libya, there are still going to be the various militias who will all want a piece of the oil revenue. And you're likely going to see the same protests and strikes that always cause Libyan oil production to drop off at various points in time.
For Europe, I think it comes down to African migrants.
MSNBC has an interesting piece up on Europe and migrants:
The European Union in 2008 cut a deal with the dictator, agreeing to pay $500 million in exchange for keeping migrants away. Italy later redoubled that deal. Gaddafi received an additional $5 billion over 20 years, a financial package intended to right the wrongs of colonialism, on the condition that he kept a tight grip on the border.
After Gaddafi fell, migrants into the EU has increased. Now I can't tell when the article was written, but there is a quote about 182,000 migrants making it to Italy.
And just to connect the dots with my other blog posts around Algeria, Al Jazeera has an opinion piece up about how the current issues going on in Algeria helped Haftar launch his attack on Tripoli:
Worried about the Libyan conflict spilling over into its territory, the Algerian leadership has been pressing for a political solution in Libya and has hosted several meetings between Libyan actors.
Given Algeria's political and military clout in the region, Haftar had avoided moving close to Algerian borders and kept open communication channels with the Algerian leadership until a few months ago. The purge that Algeria's security and military apparatus went through in mid-2018 and the uprising which erupted in February 2019 against President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's rule gave Haftar a unique opportunity to launch his expansionist military campaign, without much backlash from Algiers.
No comments:
Post a Comment