Coronavirus: Drop in US Life Expectancy

One knew that a story about a decline in US life expectancy due to COVID-19 would eventually come out. NPR (Jul 21) reports:

Life expectancy in the United States declined by a year and a half in 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which says the coronavirus is largely to blame.

COVID-19 contributed to 74% of the decline in life expectancy from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.3 years in 2020, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics.

Since a significant percentage of deaths also occurred in 2021, one would have to assume that there won't be a jump back up to 78.8 years in 2021.

Movie Review: To Live and Die in L.A.

To Live and Die in L.A. primarily occurs over a 42 day time period in Los Angeles. The movie starts off with the United States Secret Service protecting the president in Los Angeles. One of those agents, Richard Chance, notices a suspicious individual in a hotel. He chases after him and eventually tracks him down to the rooftop of the hotel. The individual is a suicide bomber, explosives wrapped around his chest. Also, climbing up to the rooftop from the floor below is Richard Chance's boss, Jimmy Hart. Jimmy Hart grabs the terrorist from behind and throws him off the roof. 

After that scene, we're introduced to Rick Masters who is a counterfeiter. He is in a warehouse, printing up fake $20 bills. We're introduced to a rather complex process and see how the bills are created from start to finish: from the drawing up of the bills to tossing the bills into a dryer to create a look of used bills.

We learn that Jimmy is just three days away from retirement, but has one last job to do. Another role of the Secret Service is to track down counterfeiting operations. He heads to the desert to track down Rick Masters. Somehow the Secret Service has figured out where the warehouse is. When he gets to the warehouse, he is shot dead. 

A few days later, Richard and team head to the warehouse and find Jimmy's body, dumped into a garbage container. All the equipment has already been moved out except for the dryer (which honestly seems odd). Richard than takes over as lead investigator to track down Rick Masters. He is given a new partner named John Vukovich.  

Coronavirus: Getting Better at Airborne Transmission?

Is the coronavirus getting better at airborne transmission? I'm not sure the New York Times via Yahoo (Oct 2) came across anything new here:

Newer variants of the coronavirus such as alpha and delta are highly contagious, infecting far more people than the original virus. Two new studies offer a possible explanation: The virus is evolving to spread more efficiently through air.

I don't know, how else would the new variants spread so rapidly? I think we've already ruled out the fact that the virus spreads efficiently via surfaces. What the article does indicate is that people should be shifting to N95 masks. Of course, the article doesn't state that explicitly, but what exactly is considered more protective than a surgical mask?

Even loose-fitting cloth and surgical masks block about half of the fine aerosols containing virus, according to the study of people infected with variants, published this month in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.

Still, at least in some crowded spaces, people may want to consider switching to more protective masks, said Don Milton, an aerosol expert at the University of Maryland who led the research.

Coronavirus: Long Term Symptoms Equal Future Disability Expenses?

The long term symptoms related to COVID-19 have been well researched: ranging from brain fog to lung problems. Could we face a future where these long term symptoms result in much higher health expenses in the future?

Scientific American (July 6) addresses a concern that millions of Americans could face permanent disability:

In addition to the personal suffering, long-term disability comes with a staggering price tag—including increased health care costs; reduction or loss of employment; and economic strain on worker’s compensation and disability support programs. It’s been estimated that as much as 30 percent of the COVID health burden could arise from COVID-induced disability. As physician and University of Massachusetts medical professor Steven Martin recently told NPR, “If we end up with a million people with ongoing symptoms that are debilitating, that is a tremendous burden for each of these individuals, but also for our health care system and our society.”

The article states that we need to consider the following:

1. We must research disability due to long COVID.

2. We need clinics to deal with those suffering from long COVID.

3. We need to look into worker's compensation programs.

4. Federal disability programs.

In terms of worker's compensation, here in California we have SDI (State Disability Insurance). The 2021 SDI rate is 1.2% up to a wage of $128,298. Per Wikipedia, since 2002, the SDI rate has increased from 0.9% to 1.2% while eligible wages have increased from $46,327 to $128,298. As one can see, it just goes up and up and up -- both on a tax and income level. Both those numbers are likely to continue to increase if long COVID-19 becomes a serious problem for the state. (As a side note, I use 2002, because Wikipedia mentions that this is when the Paid Family Leave program was put in place to cover individuals who take time off work to care for seriously ill family members or to bond with a child. Considering how much both the tax rate and eligible wages have increased, it does make one think that there is some abuse going on here.)

Also, if the worst case scenario plays out, might an investor want to invest in retirement / nursing care REITS (I do own some investments -- to be transparent)?  

Oil: Crisis Coming in 2022?

OilPrice (Jun 17) looked at the lack of investment and how that might impact future oil supply. This lack of investment has been in dramatic decline since 2014. The OilPrice article looked specifically at shale and how even if there is a rush to investment more in shale, it might take time for oil production to come back to previous levels:

Thanks to capital restraint, billions of dollars of equipment have been written down and scrapped. Employees have found new careers, and are reluctant to return given the turmoil in the industry. But, even if we could scramble that much hardware and talent to meet the moment, it wouldn't matter.

How lacking is oil investments?

In fact, an article carried in the Wall Street Journal noted that “Planned investment in oil supply globally falls about $600 billion short of what will be needed to meet projected demand by 2030, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Christyan Malek. 

API (Feb 24) looks into how we could have a crisis as soon as 2022.

First: global oil production in existing fields decline between 4% - 7% based on level of investments in those fields.

Los Angeles Times Festival of Books: Eastside Punks - A Screening and Conversation

My final 2021 Los Angeles Times Festival of Books conversation was about the Eastside Punk rock scene from the late 1970s and onwards. It was a nice final conversation to catch as I loved the memories from the participants. Now I have to say that I hope this is the last time I have to watch the Festival of Books online. I've now spend both 2020 and 2021 attending it online and hopefully 2022 can be spent catching it in person at the USC campus (I'm assuming).

Here are some bio information that I took from the LA Times website>

Jimmy Alvarado has authored numerous interviews, articles, and short films spotlighting the Eastside scene. An episode of his Eastside Punks documentary series, about The Brat, was named Best Documentary Short at the 2020 Highland Park Independent Film festival. 

Teresa Covarrubias was the vocalist for The Brat. Their debut EP Attitudes is a prized item among collectors and Straight Outta East L.A., a double album packaging it with other rare tracks, was released in 2017. 

Coronavirus: Causes the Brain to Shrink?

I've read a lot about various long haul symptoms from COVID-19, but I think this is the first time I've read about a study that suggests that the brain shrinks. Now I've read about impacts to the brain via brain fog, but a shrinking of brain size? Ouch. 

Fox News via Yahoo (Jun 18) reports:

Researchers affiliated with the University of Oxford posted findings ahead of peer review this week to medRxiv, drawing on data from the U.K. Biobank. They compared brain scans taken pre-pandemic to scans taken about three years later among 394 coronavirus patients and 388 matched controls. A further analysis included 15 hospitalized patients compared with 379 people who hadn’t been hospitalized.

"Our findings thus consistently relate to loss of grey matter in limbic cortical areas directly linked to the primary olfactory and gustatory system," or areas in the brain related to the perception of smell and taste, authors wrote.

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 20 - Was Dr. Fauci Lying about Funding Gain-of-Function Research?

I have no clue who is right or who is wrong or if this is a big deal or not, but since I've been posting on the lab leak hypothesis, an interested piece of information came out recently on Zerohedge (Oct 22) reports:

In a letter addressed to Rep. James Comer (R-KY), NIH Principal Deputy Director Lawrence A. Tabak cites a "limited experiment" to determine whether "spike proteins from naturally occurring bat coronaviruses circulating in China were capable of binding to the human ACE2 receptor in a mouse model." According to the letter, humanized mice infected with the modified bat virus "became sicker" than those exposed to an unmodified version of the same bat coronavirus.

Oil: Shale Growth in Decline?

Though this Dallas News (Sep 20) opinion piece is more of a look at how US shale has helped the United States in terms of geopolitical ramifications, it does make the following point: 

When investors looked at the shale companies, it was no longer growth at any cost but rather growth at what cost. As share prices declined, companies were forced to reset their businesses, get their spending under control, and live within their budgets — and thus deliver returns to investors either in the form of dividends or share buybacks . . . 

The shale industry has changed in another way. While the independents have scaled back, the majors have stepped up . . . When it was all added up, the growth in U.S. output seemed destined to slow to a much smaller annual increase, far less than the hectic pace registered in preceding years.

Coronavirus: Another Long Term Symptoms Study

As time goes on, more and more studies are coming out about long term symptoms due to COVID-19. One such study is from Fair Health, a non-profit organization, that the New York Times via Yahoo (Jun 15) reported on:

The study, tracking the health insurance records of nearly 2 million people in the United States who contracted the coronavirus last year, found that one month or more after their infection, almost one-quarter — 23% — of them sought medical treatment for new conditions.

. . . Post-COVID health problems were common even among people who had not gotten sick from the virus at all, the study found. While nearly half of patients who were hospitalized for COVID-19 experienced subsequent medical issues, so did 27% of people who had mild or moderate symptoms and 19% of people who said they were asymptomatic.

The most common symptom was pain and breathing difficulties. Many also had malaise and fatigue. All age groups were impacted.

Now 23% is a high figure, but in one way you could view this as good news. Back in June 2020 a report came out that estimated a much higher estimate. DutchNews.Nl (Jun 12, 2020) reported that some 95% of 1,600 respondents stated that they had trouble with normal day to day activities three months after infection. The 27% does appear to align with a Lancet Psychiatry study that estimated that 33.62% of COVID-19 patients had neurological or psychiatric issues.

Oil: Peak Supply Comes Before Peak Demand?

There is a race out there: will peak demand or peak supply come first when it comes to oil? Per Oil Price (Oct 26), the answer just might be peak supply.

Why?

Chronic underinvestment in new oil supply since the 2015 crisis and the pressure on oil and gas companies to curb emissions and even “keep it in the ground” will likely lead to peak global oil production earlier than previously expected, analysts say.

Some other notes from the article:

1. OPEC expects oil to peak in the mid-2030s, but hold steady at those levels until 2045.

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 19 - Focus on Hubei Caves

The Washington Post via Yahoo (Oct 11) has an article up about the focus on the Hubei caves and the desire of the World Health Organization to look for the source of the virus in those caves. If the virus were found in the area, it could support either the zoonotic or lab leak hypotheses. 

Hundreds of caves are spread throughout the mountains of Enshi prefecture, an agricultural corner of China's Hubei province. The most majestic, Tenglong, or "flying dragon," is one of China's largest karst cave systems, spanning 37 miles of passages that contain numerous bats.

Nearby are small farms that collectively housed hundreds of thousands of wild mammals such as civets, ferret badgers and raccoon dogs before the pandemic, farm licenses show - animals that scientists say can be intermediate hosts for viruses to cross over from bats to humans.

The World Health Organization has requested access to China's wildlife farming areas such as Enshi, calling it a key step in the search for the origins of the coronavirus. Beijing has denied the requests.

The article goes on to state that China started to crack down on the wildlife trade starting in December 2019 and on through early 2020.

Speculative Fiction: The Real and Unreal, Presented by the Ray Bradbury Foundation

The 2021 Online Version of the Los Angeles Times Festival of Books was a few months back and so I'm a bit late in getting these posts out, but as always I seriously enjoyed catching various panel discussions. One such panel discussion was about speculative fiction. 

Here are some bio information that I took from the LA Times website.

Amal El-Mohtar is the science fiction and fantasy columnist for the New York Times Book Review and the co-author, with Max Gladstone, of This Is How You Lose the Time War, a novella which has been published in ten languages and received such honours as the Hugo, Nebula, and Locus Awards. 

Megan Giddings has degrees from University of Michigan and Indiana University . . . Her novel, Lakewood, was published by Amistad in 2020. It was one of New York Magazine’s 10 best books of 2020, one of NPR’s best books of 2020, a Michigan Notable book for 2021.

Max Gladstone is the author of the Hugo-nominated Craft Sequence, which Patrick Rothfuss called “stupefyingly good.” The sixth book, Ruin of Angels, was released this September . . .  John Crowley described Max as “a true star of twenty first century fantasy.”

Stephen Graham Jones is the New York Times bestselling author of The Only Good Indians, a 2020 finalist for The Ray Bradbury Prize for Science Fiction, Fantasy & Speculative Fiction. 

The following are my notes from the panel discussion:

Amal El-Mohtar

Has never read Ray Bradbury, which is embarrassing considering the context of the panel. But does love J.R.R. Tolkien's "The Hobbit." Read it at the age of 7. Lived in Lebanon at the time and her dad's cousin gave her the book. Loved the book so much she memorized the songs in the book. It was the first time she was aware of an author.

Oil: OPEC+ Can't Meet Their Quota Targets?

If the global economy continues to open up, will oil supply become an issue? Per Reuters (Sep 27), OPEC+ can't meet their quotas. This specific article discusses Nigeria and Angola, but it mentions that only 5 OPEC countries are able to hit their quotas: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq and Azerbaijan. There are 13 members so that implies the following are unable to meet their quotas:

Algeria (2020 production at 1.3 mb/d) 

Angola (2020 production 1.3 mb/d) 

Congo (limited) 

Equatorial Guinea (2020 production 0.1 mb/d) 

Gabon (2020 production at 0.2 mb/d) 

Iran (2020 production at 2.0 mb/d) 

Libya (civil war in 2020, but currently is around 1.2 mb/d) 

Nigeria (2020 production at 1.8 mb/d) 

Venezuela (2020 production at 0.4 mb/d)

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 18 - LA Times argues evidence is fading

While articles from The Intercept and The Telegraph UK explore the potential of a Lab Leak, The LA Times (Sep 28) makes the argument for zoonotic spread.

First, though, the article provides a false choice:

The question of the origin of COVID-19 isn’t of merely academic interest. The answer could guide the world’s preparation for future pandemics; if the virus emerged from a laboratory, then improving lab safety measures will be prioritized. If scientific opinion continues to coalesce around animal-to-human transmission, that will underscore the importance of regulating contact between humans and wildlife.

To put it another way, if we focus on the wrong answer, the right measures won’t be taken.

Hmm, maybe both measures should be taken? Don't we already know that some serious viruses came from zoonotic spread? So maybe we should already consider regulating how contact is made between humans and wildlife? And then via the findings from The Intercept and The Telegraph UK, shouldn't we be concerned about the research scientists are doing?