Venezuela: President Trump and Continued Refugee Issue

The Washington Post has the latest and greatest on President Trump's thinking on Venezuela. Before getting into this we have to remember that on April 30th, opposition leader Juan Guaido thought he had garnered support from key Maduro loyalists. He quickly realized that he didn't have their support. With nearly two months having passed, what does the Washington Post have to say:

A frustrated Trump believed that national security adviser John Bolton and his director for Latin American policy, Mauricio Claver-Carone, “got played” by both the opposition and key Maduro officials, two senior administration officials said . . . Summer arrives this week with Maduro still in place, and little indication that he is imminently on his way out, or that the Trump administration has a coherent strategy to remove him. The president, officials said, is losing both patience and interest in Venezuela . . . But Trump has clearly been frustrated about a foreign policy issue he “always thought of . . . as low-hanging fruit” on which he “could get a win and tout it as a major foreign policy victory,” the former official said.

Did President Trump and his advisors forget about the 2017 protests? Maybe not. Perhaps they thought the sanctions had done enough damage to encourage the people and military to turn against Maduro.

Algeria: Corruption Arrests and Protests Continue

As a reminder, back on April 2nd, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika was forced to resign by the army after weeks of protests. I last wrote about Algeria in mid-May. In that blogpost, I discussed how the arrests being made by the Algeria military were either driven by an attempt to gain support by the protests or to stop political opposition (or possibly both).

Both the arrests and protests continue.

From Al Jazeera (June 18):

Those with "grudges and animosity towards the army and its command . . . are undoubtedly enemies of Algeria," a defence ministry statement on Tuesday quoted Gaid Salah as saying at a military base in the southwestern province of Bechar . . . Large weekly demonstrations similar to those that led to Bouteflika's exit have continued, with protesters demanding the fall of establishment insiders and the setting up of independent institutions . . . On Monday, a court in the capital, Algiers, ordered the detention of Mourad Eulmi, head of family-owned firm SOVAC, a partner of Germany's Volkswagen AG, over suspected corruption . . . On June 16, former Finance Minister Karim Djoudi had appeared before the Supreme Court to face questions about corruption accusations, according to state media . . . His hearing came days after the same court ordered the detention of former Prime Ministers Ahmed Ouyahia and Abdelmalek Sellal, as well as former Trade Minister Amara Benyounes for "dissipation of public funds and awarding illegal privileges".

Part of me

Los Angeles Times Festival of Books. Game Time: Behind the Scenes of Sports Controversies

I went to the LA Times Festival of Books (April 13-14). I'm posting my notes on the various panel discussions I attended.

The ninth and final panel discussion I attended was "Game Time: Behind the Scenes of Sports Controversies."

Here is an edited panelist biography via the LA Times website.

Ken Bensinger has been a working journalist for twenty years, getting his start in a small magazine in New York soon after graduating from college before jumping to the Wall Street Journal where he was given his first beats to cover.

Mark Leibovich is Chief National Correspondent for The New York Times Magazine. He lives in Washington, D.C. with this family and occasionally eats lunch there. His newest book is "Big Game: The NFL in Dangerous Times."

Rob Neyer is the Commissioner of the West Coast League, the premier collegiate summer baseball league west of the Mississippi River. He's written or co-written seven books about baseball, and his latest "Power Ball: Anatomy of a Modern Baseball Game," won the Casey Award as the best baseball book published in 2018. He lives in Oregon with his wife and daughter.

And the following are my notes from the panel discussion:

Ken Bensinger. Many books have been written about soccer and corruption. He wanted to do it from a different direction. FIFA bullies countries. FIFA will say that they will kick countries out of the World Cup. There needs to be oversight over FIFA. Media companies need to be looked at. Their money causes corruption.

Mark Leibovich. Football and politics both have redeeming qualities. Politics impacts peoples lives. In the NFL, you can’t hide from poor performance. He likes and dislikes people in both realms. Politics are for keeps. The NFL commissioner needs to be fired. There should be term limits for football owners. They have outsized influence.

Rob Neyer. Why write a book about a random baseball game: about a team that would eventually win the World Series versus a team that was out of the playoffs? His editor wanted him to pick a game that already happened: Oakland A’s versus Houston Astros.

Baseball should work towards a game that was played in the 70s and 80s. The game now is all about home runs and strike outs. In the 70s and 80s, you had players doing different things. Stealing bases, for example. Baseball fans spend too much time rooting for billionaires and millionaires. We need to worry about how minor leaguers live.

Measure EE: Los Angeles Voters Defeat Parcel Tax for LAUSD

Measure EE was parcel tax proposal that would have raised about $500 million per year for LAUSD. Per the Daily News:

Under Measure EE, commercial property owners would have paid the bulk of the estimated $500 million per year in tax revenue, with an average cost to homeowners of $100 to $450 per year. The measure was written to sunset in 12 years.

The measure was voted down on June 4th: 54.3% no, 45.7% yes. It needed a two-thirds majority vote to pass so it went down in flames.

Interestingly, LAUDS is forecasting that they will have a $576.6 million deficit for the 2019-2020 Fiscal Year. So basically, the $500 million per tax would keep things flat.

Los Angeles Times Festival of Books. Where Do We Go From Here? Contextualizing This American Moment

I went to the LA Times Festival of Books (April 13-14). I'm posting my notes on the various panel discussions I attended.

The eighth panel discussion I attended was "Where Do We Go From Here? Contextualizing This American Moment."

Here is an edited panelist biography via the LA Times website.

Nicolas Berggruen is Founder and Chairman of the Berggruen Institute. He is coauthor of "Intelligent Governance for the 21st Century: A Middle Way between West and East" and is copublisher of The WorldPost. He is also Chairman of Berggruen Holdings.

Nathan Gardels is Cofounder of the Berggruen Institute and Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost, a partnership with the Washington Post. He is the coauthor of Intelligent Governance for the 21st Century: A Middle Way between East and West, a Financial Times best book of 2012.

Professor Jennifer Rothman is nationally recognized for her scholarship in the intellectual property field, and has become the leading expert on the right of publicity. She researches and writes primarily in the areas of intellectual property and constitutional law. Her book on the subject, "The Right of Publicity: Privacy Reimagined for a Public World" was released last year by the Harvard University Press.

Named one of the world's ten most influential intellectuals by MIT, Douglas Rushkoff is an award-winning author, broadcaster, and documentarian who studies human autonomy in the digital age. Drawn from the popular "Team Human" podcast, Rushkoff's latest book of the same name is an extension of the ideas he discusses on the pod.

LIbya: Haftar Over-Stretched?

Brief info on Libya before going into my blog:

The UN backed government in Tripoli is called the Government of National Account (GNA).

There is a rival government in Benghazi called the Libyan National Army (LNA). Khalifa Haftar is the leader of that government and is currently attempting to gain control of Tripoli.

Okay . . . is Haftar getting over-stretched?

Via Aljazeera we learn that Haftar isn't really making any ground in his two-month assault on Tripoli. The current situation:

Eastern Libyan forces launched air strikes for a second night on a military base housed within Tripoli's airport as fighting for the capital continues . . . The LNA, supported by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, accuses Turkey of backing the government in Tripoli and its forces.

Los Angeles Times Festival of Books. Aren’t We American? Race, Class, Immigration, and Citizenship

I went to the LA Times Festival of Books (April 13-14). I'm posting my notes on the various panel discussions I attended.

The seventh panel discussion I attended was "Aren’t We American? Race, Class, Immigration, and Citizenship."

Here is an edited panelist biography via the LA Times website.

An ordained Buddhist priest in the Soto Zen tradition, Duncan Ryuken Williams has spent years piecing together the story of the Japanese American community during World War II. He has published five other books, including The Other Side of Zen.

Sam Erman is an Assistant Professor of Law at the USC Gould School of Law. He came to USC from the Smithsonian Institution, where he was a postdoctoral fellow in Latino studies. Erman's primary areas of research include the history of Puerto Rico and its relations with the United States.

Juan De Lara is an Assistant Professor in American Studies and Ethnicity at the University of Southern California. His newest book, "Inland Shift: Race, Space, and Capital in Inland Southern California" was published last year.

Elda María Román is an Assistant Professor in the English Department at the University of Southern California. She is the author of "Race and Upward Mobility" and has published articles on Latinx and African American cultural production.

Shale Oil: Constraints, Cash Flow and Breakevens

OilPrice had a number of articles up on shale, as always. I found a few to be of interest. This article focuses on some of the constraints that shale has:

Also, more water and more sand and longer laterals all have their limits. 

In 2018, the industry spent $70 billion on drilling 9,975 wells, according to Hughes, with $54 billion going specifically to oil. “Of the $54 billion spent on tight oil plays in 2018, 70% served to offset field declines and 30% to increase production,” Hughes wrote. 

Better technology and an intensification of drilling techniques have arrested decline, and even led to a renewed increase in production. But ultimate recovery won’t be any higher; drilling techniques merely allow “the play to be drained with fewer wells,” Hughes said.

What is interesting here is that better technology doesn't mean that shale producers are able to get more oil out of the ground. It just means they're able to recover it quicker. Also, as a capital expense number, it costs around $7 million for a well to be drilled.

Los Angeles Times Festival of Books. Biography: The Lives of Legendary African Americans

I went to the LA Times Festival of Books (April 13-14). I'll be posting my notes on the various panel discussions I attended.

The sixth panel discussion I attended was "Biography: The Lives of Legendary African Americans."

Here is an edited panelist biography via the LA Times website.

Raymond Arsenault is one of the nation's leading civil rights historians, he is the author of several acclaimed and prize-winning books, including "Freedom Riders: 1961 and the Struggle for Racial Justice" and "The Sound of Freedom: Marian Anderson, the Lincoln Memorial, and the Concert That Awakened America." New York Times Notable Book "Arthur Ashe: A Life" was released last year.

David W. Blight is Class of 1954 Professor of American History and Director of the Gilder Lehrman Center for the Study of Slavery, Resistance, and Abolition at Yale University. His newest book is "Frederick Douglass: Prophet of Freedom."

Ron Rapoport was a sports columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times for more than twenty years and served as the sports commentor for NPR's Weekend Edition for two decades. His newest book is "Let's Play Two: The Legend of Mr. Cub, The Life of Ernie Banks."

Jeffrey C. Stewart has taught at Harvard University, Yale University, UCLA, Tufts University, Howard University, Scripps College, and George Mason University before coming to the University of California at Santa Barbara as Professor and Chair of the Department of Black Studies from 2008-2016. His latest book is "The New Negro: The Life of Alain Locke."

Guyana: Oil Corruption

I wrote a blog post about Guyana earlier this year and it had to do with territory disputes between Guyana and Venezuela. Though that is an ongoing issue, Guyana recently got an article written up about the country in the BBC:

South America's second poorest nation is bracing for an oil boom that could catapult it to the top of the continent's rich list - and beyond. But can Guyana avoid the so-called oil curse and ensure that its newfound riches benefit all Guyanese?

In Guyana, "corruption is rampant," says Troy Thomas, the head of the local chapter of global anti-corruption NGO Transparency International. He says he is "very worried" about the oil curse. A political crisis in recent months has been seen by some as an early sign of the curse's effects. 

Corruption. Corruption. Corruption.

Los Angeles Times Festival of Books. Entertainment, Information, and Addiction: Our New Digital, Social World

I went to the LA Times Festival of Books (April 13-14). I'll be posting my notes on the various panel discussions I attended.

The fifth panel discussion I attended was "Entertainment, Information, and Addiction: Our New Digital, Social World."

Here is an edited panelist biography via the LA Times website.

Ali E. Abbas is Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering and Professor of Public Policy at the University of Southern California. He is also editor of numerous books including "Improving Homeland Security Decisions", and the forthcoming book "Next Generation Ethics."

Dr. Julie Albright is a sociologist specializing in digital culture and communications and is currently a lecturer in the departments of Applied Psychology and Engineering at USC. Her book on the impacts of mobile-social-digital technologies on society, "Left to Their Own Devices: How Digital Natives Are Reshaping the American Dream" was published last year.

David Craig is Clinical Associate Professor at USC Annenberg's School for Communication and Journalism and a Fellow at the Peabody Media Center. His newest book is "Social Media Entertainment: The New Intersection of Hollywood and Silicon Valley."

California: Pension Needs Increase

The Sacramento Bee posted an article up about a month ago regarding public employee pensions:

California state government’s bill for public employee pensions is set to rise by $676 million. CalPERS on Tuesday advanced a scheduled increase in employer contribution rates, bringing the state’s total bill for the 2019-2020 budget year to about $7 billion.

From what I can tell, the increase is driven by:

1. $340 million increase due to paying down the current unfunded liability. The article states that California has $287 billion in unfunded liabilities that it is trying to pay down over 30 years. Governor Newsom wants to add an additional $3 billion to that amount.

2. $229 million will have to come from various public agencies as the rate of return is being reduced from 7.25% to 7.0%.

Los Angeles Times Festival of Books. Excavating The Past: Writing International Histories.

I went to the LA Times Festival of Books (April 13-14). I'll be posting my notes on the various panel discussions I attended.

The fourth panel discussion I attended was "Excavating The Past: Writing International Histories."

Here is an edited panelist biography via the LA Times website.

Ruby Lal is Professor of South Asian Studies at Emory University, Atlanta. Her fields of study include feminist history and theory, and the question of archive as it relates to writing about Islamic societies in the precolonial and colonial world. "Empress: The Astonishing Reign of Nur Jahan" is her latest book.

A third-generation journalist, Scott Martelle is currently a member of the editorial board of the Los Angeles Times. His newest book is "William Walker's Wars: How One Man's Private American Army Tried to Conquer Mexico, Nicaragua, and Honduras."

Priya Satia is a professor of British History at Stanford University. "Empire of Guns: The Violent Making of the Industrial Revolution" is her newest book.  

And the following are my notes from the panel discussion: 
 
Ruby Lal. Nur Jahan (1600s) has been lost to history. She is a household name in South Asia, but she is known for her love story. People don’t know who she was. Why was she lost to history? She has coins minted under her name. She has portraits of her loading a musket, which is something women didn’t do.

Algeria Update: Military Makes Arrests, what does it mean?

What is currently going on in Algeria? According to Reuters, there are still protests but . . .

The demonstration was peaceful but smaller than those that have shaken Algiers over the past weeks.

There have been a number of arrests amount the political and business elites. Interestingly, Reuters and Fox News interpret the developments differently.

Reuters interprets these arrests as the military trying to gain support among the protestors by detaining those suspected of corruption:

Last week, Bouteflika’s youngest brother, Said, and two former intelligence chiefs were placed in custody by a military judge over “harming the army’s authority and plotting against state authority”. At least five businessmen, including the country’s richest man, Issad Rebrab, who is active in food industry and sugar refining, have been detained for alleged involvement in corruption scandals.

Los Angeles Times Festival of Books. John Carreyrou, Author of “Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup.”

I went to the LA Times Festival of Books (April 13-14). I'll be posting my notes on the various panel discussions I attended.

The third panel discussion I attended was "John Carreyrou, Author of Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup.."

Here is an edited panelist biography via the LA Times website.

John Carreyrou is a two-time Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter at The Wall Street Journal. For his extensive coverage of Theranos, Carreyrou was awarded the George Polk Award for Financial Reporting, the Gerald Loeb Award for Distinguished Business and Financial Journalism in the category of beat reporting, and the Barlett & Steele Silver Award for Investigative Business Journalism.

And the following are my notes from the panel discussion: 

Elizabeth Holmes left Stanford during her sophomore year. She wanted to build a medical device. She also wanted to be like Steve Jobs. She created Theranos. The goal was to invent a bracelet that would have needles that would diagnose your diseases and then give you the necessary medication. This was very Sci-Fi and when they finally gave up on that idea, they shifted to doing blood tests. In the end, it was never ready and that’s where it all became a lie.