A frustrated Trump believed that national security adviser John Bolton and his director for Latin American policy, Mauricio Claver-Carone, “got played” by both the opposition and key Maduro officials, two senior administration officials said . . . Summer arrives this week with Maduro still in place, and little indication that he is imminently on his way out, or that the Trump administration has a coherent strategy to remove him. The president, officials said, is losing both patience and interest in Venezuela . . . But Trump has clearly been frustrated about a foreign policy issue he “always thought of . . . as low-hanging fruit” on which he “could get a win and tout it as a major foreign policy victory,” the former official said.
Did President Trump and his advisors forget about the 2017 protests? Maybe not. Perhaps they thought the sanctions had done enough damage to encourage the people and military to turn against Maduro.
Yet, I think they might have under-estimated certain facts:
First, China and Russia loaned a lot of money to Venezuela.
Second, Maduro has given control of much of the economy to his military, meaning they're getting to take some cash off the top. That certainly would have ended under Guaido.
Interestingly, there was a claim by President Trump that Russia was withdrawing their troops from Venezuela. Via Newsweek we learn he was wrong on that part, as well:
On Twitter Monday, President Trump said Russia had informed him that "they have removed most of their people from Venezuela." Kremlin spokesman Dmitriy Peskov told reporters on Tuesday that Russian officials had not been in touch with Trump about the presence of Russian troops in the South American country, and the Russian operatives remain in Venezuela where they are continuing their cooperation with Maduro and his backers.
Finally, an update on Venezuelan refugees. Refugee estimates for 2019 are dropping.
Yahoo had the following to say about Venezuelan refugees in early March:
"Without any significant change that could reverse the economic, political and social crisis in Venezuela, the total number of migrants and refugees could reach between 5.39 and 5.75 million by the end of 2019," said the report commissioned by OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro.
The Guardian recently wrote this:
More than 4 million Venezuelans have now fled economic and humanitarian chaos in what the UN’s refugee agency called a “staggering” exodus that has swelled by 1 million people since last November alone.
The Guardian had these statistics of Venezuelans in various countries:
Colombia: 1.3 million
Peru: 768,0000
Chile: 288,000
Ecuador: 263,000
Brazil: 168,000
Argentina: 130,000
That's around 2.9 million so there's another 1.1 million in other countries, which seems like a lot. I wonder where those 1.1 million are or if these country estimates are too low.
Anyways, back to why estimates look to be dropping. The Financial Times has this:
More than 5m Venezuelans will have fled economic and political chaos to seek refuge abroad by the end of this year on current trends and the crisis is overwhelming education and health systems across South America, the UN official overseeing relief efforts said on Wednesday.
Just a few months ago it was as high as 5.75 million (Yahoo) and has now dropped down to 5.0 million. The 5 million estimate seems like a straight line projection if the 1 million figure from the Guardian is based from the beginning of November to the end of May. That would be 7 months. June through December would be another 7 months. Now, of course, 1 million leaving a country of around 30 million is still significant.
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