Well, what's next is rather complicated when it comes to the relationship between the Kurds and Iraqis.
Al Jazeera had a couple pieces up recently that looked at the situation (here and here.)
Based on the two articles, here are two pieces of recent history that I feel are important:
In 2014, as the Obama administration decided to take a back seat in Iraq, the Iranian backed militias came in to provide support.
In 2015, when the Iraqi government was focused on ISIS, the Kurds took over control of Kirkuk, a city that's important due to oil.
Where we stand now is that ISIS was defeated in Mosul and in Syria. Though defeated, ISIS is still hanging around, hiding out in the deserts of Syria and Iraq. At the same time, the Kurds decided to make a bid for independence; however, that appears to have failed (via Iranian backed militias helping out the Iraqis), resulting in Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani saying he'll resign -- though saying is not doing.
My thoughts based on these articles as well as just reading about this in the past -- admittedly, I'm not expert here:
Kurds
The Peshmerga forces apparently didn't put up much of a fight with Iraqi troops. I always thought the Peshmerga was a well-oiled fighting machine. Were the Iraqi/Iran-backed militia forces that superior? I suspect not as it took them months to take out ISIS in Mosul.
Are the Peshmerga forces not behind the Kurdish leader? Was this a factor in his resignation?
Did they withdraw for strategic reasons?
How do the Kurds feel about the U.S.? The U.S. depended on the Kurds to help with ISIS. Now it appears that the U.S. decided to take a neutral/pro-Bagdad stance on the Kurds/Baghdad dispute on sovereignty.
They must also play a balancing act with Iran and Turkey who aren't keen on a free Kurdistan.
There are fractions within the Kurds. Kurdish parties opposed to Barzani allowed the Iraqis into Kirkuk.
The Kurds, at least those led by Barzani, aren't giving up on independence. Here's a section of his resignation speech via the BBC:
"Three million votes for Kurdistan independence created history and cannot be erased."
Shiite Baghdad government
Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi must feel he's on a roll. They defeated ISIS. They forced the Kurds to ask for a truce. It appears that the US played either a neutral role in the Kurds/Baghdad dispute or was tacitly in support of Baghdad.
How does Iraq now deal with the Kurds? As via one article, the Kurds are used to having a strong say in Iraqi politics. Yet, one could say that Iraq just went through a minor civil war with the Kurds who just asked for a truce. How can you really give the Kurds a similar say again in how the government is run? And if Iraq doesn't, how will they react?
I recently posted a blog post (here) about how Saudi Arabia is trying to wedge between the current Iran/Iraq alliance (probably with some pushing from the US). How does Iraq play things on this more global level? Iran, US, Saudi Arabia.
One reason for the rise of ISIS was how Shiite Baghdad treated the Sunnis in the north. How will this Sunni/Shiite relationship play out now? To me, one item to keep a watch out for is how individuals in Mosul are treated. Do complaints start to rise about mistreatment of non-ISIS, but Sunni individuals.
Sunni Iraqi (Mosul)
From everything I read, the Sunni's were at least somewhat open to ISIS due to how they were treated by Baghdad.
As mentioned just above, this is something to keep an eye on in Mosul. If Sunnis start to complain about their treatment, they might not go back to supporting ISIS, but they might be open to other forms of resistance.
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