The federal government expects U.S. mortality rates to be elevated by 15% over pre-pandemic norms in 2021 and not return to normal levels until 2023, according to a report released Tuesday by the Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare programs.
The trustees concluded that these elevated mortality rates, along with lower immigration and depressed fertility rates, have had a significant effect on the trust funds supporting both programs in the short term. But the virus' long-term effects on America's retirement and healthcare systems remain unclear, as the pandemic still appears far from over.. . . The trustees estimated that the Social Security system will be able to pay its scheduled benefits on a timely basis in 2034, one years earlier than the previous year's report had assumed. The changing forecast is from a depletion in tax income associated with the economic crisis, said a senior administration official familiar with the analysis.
Okay, here's my interpretation. The economic impact from COVID-19 will result in Social Security will be able to pay their benefits for 13 more years. But COVID-19 could result in that date changing. It could push off the change, because those dying from COVID-19 are mainly the elderly. It could bring forward the date, because of unforeseen long-term health impacts related to those who have gotten COVID-19 and recovered.
Honestly, I'm not sure how lower fertility rates impact the programs in the short term. Once again, 2034 is 13 years away. Someone born in 2020 won't even be in the workforce come 2034.
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