Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 19 - Focus on Hubei Caves

The Washington Post via Yahoo (Oct 11) has an article up about the focus on the Hubei caves and the desire of the World Health Organization to look for the source of the virus in those caves. If the virus were found in the area, it could support either the zoonotic or lab leak hypotheses. 

Hundreds of caves are spread throughout the mountains of Enshi prefecture, an agricultural corner of China's Hubei province. The most majestic, Tenglong, or "flying dragon," is one of China's largest karst cave systems, spanning 37 miles of passages that contain numerous bats.

Nearby are small farms that collectively housed hundreds of thousands of wild mammals such as civets, ferret badgers and raccoon dogs before the pandemic, farm licenses show - animals that scientists say can be intermediate hosts for viruses to cross over from bats to humans.

The World Health Organization has requested access to China's wildlife farming areas such as Enshi, calling it a key step in the search for the origins of the coronavirus. Beijing has denied the requests.

The article goes on to state that China started to crack down on the wildlife trade starting in December 2019 and on through early 2020.

Speculative Fiction: The Real and Unreal, Presented by the Ray Bradbury Foundation

The 2021 Online Version of the Los Angeles Times Festival of Books was a few months back and so I'm a bit late in getting these posts out, but as always I seriously enjoyed catching various panel discussions. One such panel discussion was about speculative fiction. 

Here are some bio information that I took from the LA Times website.

Amal El-Mohtar is the science fiction and fantasy columnist for the New York Times Book Review and the co-author, with Max Gladstone, of This Is How You Lose the Time War, a novella which has been published in ten languages and received such honours as the Hugo, Nebula, and Locus Awards. 

Megan Giddings has degrees from University of Michigan and Indiana University . . . Her novel, Lakewood, was published by Amistad in 2020. It was one of New York Magazine’s 10 best books of 2020, one of NPR’s best books of 2020, a Michigan Notable book for 2021.

Max Gladstone is the author of the Hugo-nominated Craft Sequence, which Patrick Rothfuss called “stupefyingly good.” The sixth book, Ruin of Angels, was released this September . . .  John Crowley described Max as “a true star of twenty first century fantasy.”

Stephen Graham Jones is the New York Times bestselling author of The Only Good Indians, a 2020 finalist for The Ray Bradbury Prize for Science Fiction, Fantasy & Speculative Fiction. 

The following are my notes from the panel discussion:

Amal El-Mohtar

Has never read Ray Bradbury, which is embarrassing considering the context of the panel. But does love J.R.R. Tolkien's "The Hobbit." Read it at the age of 7. Lived in Lebanon at the time and her dad's cousin gave her the book. Loved the book so much she memorized the songs in the book. It was the first time she was aware of an author.

Oil: OPEC+ Can't Meet Their Quota Targets?

If the global economy continues to open up, will oil supply become an issue? Per Reuters (Sep 27), OPEC+ can't meet their quotas. This specific article discusses Nigeria and Angola, but it mentions that only 5 OPEC countries are able to hit their quotas: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq and Azerbaijan. There are 13 members so that implies the following are unable to meet their quotas:

Algeria (2020 production at 1.3 mb/d) 

Angola (2020 production 1.3 mb/d) 

Congo (limited) 

Equatorial Guinea (2020 production 0.1 mb/d) 

Gabon (2020 production at 0.2 mb/d) 

Iran (2020 production at 2.0 mb/d) 

Libya (civil war in 2020, but currently is around 1.2 mb/d) 

Nigeria (2020 production at 1.8 mb/d) 

Venezuela (2020 production at 0.4 mb/d)

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 18 - LA Times argues evidence is fading

While articles from The Intercept and The Telegraph UK explore the potential of a Lab Leak, The LA Times (Sep 28) makes the argument for zoonotic spread.

First, though, the article provides a false choice:

The question of the origin of COVID-19 isn’t of merely academic interest. The answer could guide the world’s preparation for future pandemics; if the virus emerged from a laboratory, then improving lab safety measures will be prioritized. If scientific opinion continues to coalesce around animal-to-human transmission, that will underscore the importance of regulating contact between humans and wildlife.

To put it another way, if we focus on the wrong answer, the right measures won’t be taken.

Hmm, maybe both measures should be taken? Don't we already know that some serious viruses came from zoonotic spread? So maybe we should already consider regulating how contact is made between humans and wildlife? And then via the findings from The Intercept and The Telegraph UK, shouldn't we be concerned about the research scientists are doing?

Los Angeles Times Festival of Books: Music, Money, and Mindfulness

The 2021 Online Version of the Los Angeles Times Festival of Books was a few months back and so I'm a bit late in getting these posts out, but as always I seriously enjoyed catching various panel discussions. One such panel discussion was about music, money and mindfulness. Here are some bio information that I took from the LA Times website.

Jeff Brabec is Senior Vice President of Business & Legal Affairs for BMG, the fourth largest music publisher in the world. Brabec specializes in evaluating music publishing catalogue acquisitions. He is the co-author with his twin brother Todd of the book "MUSIC, MONEY, AND SUCCESS: The Insider's Guide To Making Money In The Music Business" (8th Edition). 

Lynn Helding is the author of The Musician's Mind: Teaching, Learning and Performance in the Age of Brain Science. She is currently Professor of Practice in Voice and Vocal Pedagogy at USC’s Thornton School of Music and serves as an associate editor of the Journal of Singing.

Richard "Wolfie" Wolf is an Emmy Award-winning composer, multi-Platinum selling music producer, and professor at the University of Southern California’s Thornton School of Music, where he teaches ever-popular classes on music and mindfulness. He is the author of In "Tune: Music as the Bridge to Mindfulness". 

The following are my notes from the panel discussion:

Richard "Wolfie" Wolf 

Learned how to mediate as a senior in high school. He wasn't very good at it. Years later he went through a panic attack and was told to meditate 10 minutes in the morning and at night. He learned to concentrate and focus in order to meditate better. 

Oil: $542 Billion Investment Needed vs Current $352 billion?

Will oil investments need to rise dramatically in order to avoid a supply crunch? OilPrice (Oct 7) discusses a report from Moody's.

Here are the highlights:

1. Annual oil investments need to increase from $352 billion to $542 billion in the near term.

2. Capital budgets aren't expected to grow that much in 2022.

This appears to align with what IEA said back in May 2020 when they mention that if oil investments don't recover that we could see issues starting in 2025. In that same blog post I mentioned that Wood Mackenzie had also come to a similar conclusion though they mentioned "later this decade," which might be interpreted as saying as far off as 2029. Interestingly, you'll find that Wood Mackenzie anticipated that 2021 investments would come in at $300 billion while Moody's has the number at $352 billion. Have 2021 investments already increased $52 billion above what they were forecasted to be in 2020 or are Wood Mackenzie and Moody's using slightly different interpretations? What makes me think they might have different interpretations is that IEA has 2020 investments at $347 billion. I mean, would investments in 2021 really drop from $347 billion to $300 billion and then back up to $352 billion? Doubt it.

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 17 - Scientists wanted to conduct research with cave bats in their natural habitat

The Telegraph (Sep 21) has a concerning article about funding that scientists were hoping to get approved (was not approved) for bat research:

New documents show that just 18 months before the first Covid-19 cases appeared, researchers had submitted plans to release skin-penetrating nanoparticles and aerosols containing “novel chimeric spike proteins” of bat coronaviruses into cave bats in Yunnan, China.

They also planned to create chimeric viruses, genetically enhanced to infect humans more easily, and requested $14million from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa) to fund the work.

. . . The proposal also included plans to mix high-risk natural coronavirus strains with more infectious but less dangerous varieties.

The funding was rejected due to the fact that the unintended consequences weren't being considered.

Movie Review: Paths of Glory

Paths of Glory is a Stanley Kubrick film from 1957. The movie is about trench warfare between the Germans and French during World War I and the aftermath of one of those battles (both philosophical and reality). 

Spoilers: General Broulard (Adolphe Menjou) meets with his subordinate General Mireau (George Macready) inside a palatial home turned into headquarters. Broulard tells Mireau that the French want to capture a German position called the "Anthill." Mireau protests, saying that it isn't possible and that his men have already suffered significant casualties. Broulard states that if Mireau takes on this task and succeeds, he will be promoted to a two star general. This perks Mireau's interest and he changes his tune, saying that he believes it is possible to take the position.

Mireau goes to the trenches where we get to see the contrast of the living conditions between the generals and the other officers / enlisted troops. The generals get to spend their time in the palatial homes while everyone else is stuck in the mire. He heads over to Colonel Dax (Kirk Douglas) to tell him of the plan. Dax protests and Mireau threatens to put him on leave. Dax backs down and states that he will lead his men to battle.

That night, a scout team is sent out led by Lt. Roget (Wayne Morris). It includes two other individuals, one of them a Corporal Paris (Ralph Meeker). They make their way through the barbwire fencing. When they get closer to the German position the third individual is sent off to scout ahead. Roget panics when the individual doesn't return on a timely basis. He randomly throws a grenade and then takes off back to the French line. Paris doesn't want to leave the other man behind so goes off looking for him. He finds him dead, killed by the grenade. He then makes his way back to the French line where he finds Roget writing up a false report about how the situation played out.

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 16 - The Intercept Article

The Intercept (Sep 6) was able to obtain 900 pages of materials via a FOIA lawsuit regarding U.S. funding of virus research in China.

The documents contain several critical details about the research in Wuhan, including the fact that key experimental work with humanized mice was conducted at a biosafety level 3 lab at Wuhan University Center for Animal Experiment — and not at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, as was previously assumed.

. . . The bat coronavirus grant provided EcoHealth Alliance with a total of $3.1 million, including $599,000 that the Wuhan Institute of Virology used in part to identify and alter bat coronaviruses likely to infect humans.

Oil: Bank of America says oil could hit $100

How high might oil prices go? Bloomberg (Oct 1) reports that Bank of America thinks it might hit $100 by winter.

Why?

1. A switch from gas-to-oil due to the high price of natural gas.

2. If there is a cold winter.

3. The opening up of international travel and the impact that would have on aviation fuel.

This would cause increased inflation and would have a negative economic impact.

What would that do to gas prices in Los Angeles (where I live)? Well, gas prices range from $4.00 to over $5.00 currently. How gas prices can have such a large range is beyond me. Admittedly, the $4.00 is discount gas stations as well as Arco and 76 and Shell are more like $4.40s, but I have definitely seen the odd location where even regular fuel prices are $5.00. Premium can definitely be found at over $5.00 at many locations. So if oil goes from close to $80 to $100, will we see prices in the $5.00 to over $6.00 range? Ouch.

 

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 15 - When A Scientist Stands Out, They Get Hammered Down

Here's an interesting look into the politicization (or maybe better to call it school yard antics) of COVID-19 origins by scientists.

 The New York Times via Yahoo (Aug 24):

“By the time the SARS-CoV-2 virus was detected in Wuhan in late 2019, it looked like it had already picked up the mutations it needed to be very good at spreading among humans,” [Alina Chan, a postdoctoral fellow at the Broad Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts]  said. “It was already good to go.”

The hypothesis, widely disputed by other scientists, was the foundation for an explosive paper posted online in May 2020, in which Chan and her colleagues questioned the prevailing consensus that the lethal virus had naturally spilled over to humans from bats through an intermediary host animal.

Algeria: Tensions with Morocco

I first started to follow what was going on in Algeria back in April 2019 when I learned about protests against then President Adbelaziz Bouteflika. Shortly thereafter the military told him to leave office. 

 On Sep 17, Friday, he died. Al Jazeera (Sep 18) has this:

Former Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika died on Friday at age 84 after enduring years of ill health.

. . . His death at the age of 84 marks the end of an era for Algeria. After two decades in power, he resigned in April 2019 after street demonstrations erupted against his plan to seek a fifth term.

On other news around Algeria, Associated Press via the Los Angeles Times (Aug 24) has this:

Algeria formally broke off diplomatic relations with neighboring Morocco on Tuesday, with the foreign minister citing a series of alleged hostile acts.

Coronavirus: Breakthrough Cases Part 3

Are United States breakthrough cases going to grow in numbers? If this Politico (Sep 14) article correct, the answer might be yes:

The Biden administration’s push to roll out coronavirus vaccine booster shots this month has largely been shaped by unpublished data from Israel’s vaccination campaign, according to two individuals familiar with the matter.

The Israel data, which is set to be made public as soon as this week, shows that the Pfizer vaccine’s ability to prevent severe disease and hospitalization is waning over time — as is the shot’s protection against mild and moderate disease, the two sources said. 

. . . Although the CDC has published a series of targeted studies that suggest Covid-19 vaccines’ effectiveness against infection is decreasing, particularly in the elderly, the Israeli data is more comprehensive and more alarming, three sources who have reviewed the data told POLITICO on Monday.

If the Israel data is accurate -- and why wouldn't it be -- we're going to start seeing cases among the vaccinated rise. 

Could that explain why (LA Times - Sep 15) "Los Angeles county plans to require proof of vaccination at indoor bars, nightclubs, breweries, wineries." Of interesting note, this plan was announced the day after the California governor recall election.