Based on evidence from clinical trials in people 16 years and older, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 95% effective at preventing laboratory-confirmed infection with the virus that causes COVID-19 in people who received two doses and had no evidence of being previously infected.
But clinical trials do not equal the real world.
I recently took a look at an example where multiple fully vaccinated people got COVID-19 after a house party. That story was reported on August 4th, but it shouldn't be a surprise. Reuters (Jul 5) had reported the following findings from Israel:
Vaccine effectiveness in preventing both infection and symptomatic disease fell to 64% since June 6, the Health Ministry said. At the same time the vaccine was 93% effective in preventing hospitalizations and serious illness from the coronavirus.
The ministry in its statement did not say what the previous level was or provide any further details. However ministry officials published a report in May that two doses of Pfizer's vaccine provided more than 95% protection against infection, hospitalization and severe illness.
Israel used the Pfizer vaccine. So the 95% effectiveness begins to nose dive rather quickly.
The Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday released data from Pfizer's application for COVID-19 vaccine booster doses. In it, the company presents what it considers proof that a third shot will be both safe and effective for most adults, arguing that immunity wanes over time and has so far not been linked to any particular variant.
As for Pfizer, they have a monetary incentive to push booster shots, but it does align with what Israel was finding.
The Hill (Aug 1) via MSN has this story about two hospitals in San Francisco:
At least 233 staffers at a pair of San Francisco hospitals have tested positive for COVID-19, the majority of whom were fully vaccinated but became infected with the delta variant.
Quartz(Aug 8) discussed Iceland:
In Iceland, 96% of females and 90% of males 16 years or older have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine. Its vaccination rate, one of the highest in the world, makes it a particularly interesting place to look at the incidence and severity of breakthrough infections.
Covid-19 vaccines were first administered in Iceland at the end of 2020; by mid-July, every resident over the age of 16 was offered a shot. Yet tests show an alarming number of domestic Covid-19 infections are still happening with the onset of the delta variant.
ESPN (Sep 14) had this about the New Orleans Saints:
The New Orleans Saints have had eight members of the organization test positive for COVID-19, calling into question their status for Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Tuesday.
The total includes six offensive coaches, one player and a nutritionist, according to a source.
. . . Payton said during the summer that the team's coaching and personnel staffs were 100% vaccinated.
The New York TImes (Aug 18) reported:
The seven states — California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Oregon, Utah, Vermont and Virginia — were examined because they are keeping the most detailed data. It is not certain that the trends in these states hold throughout the country.
In any event, scientists have always expected that as the population of vaccinated people grows, they will be represented more frequently in tallies of the severely ill and dead.
There is this a statement below about how the vaccines are helping save lives. Yet, I think we need to go back to the Israel and Pfizer data where immunity wanes. How long will the fact be that the vaccines save lives? I think this is something that needs to be carefully watched.
“We don’t want to dilute the message that the vaccine is tremendously successful and protective, more so than we ever hoped initially,” said Dr. Scott Dryden-Peterson, an infectious disease physician and epidemiologist at Brigham & Women’s Hospital in Boston.
“The fact that we’re seeing breakthrough cases and breakthrough hospitalizations and deaths doesn’t diminish that it still saves many people’s lives,” he added.
Recently, the White House had the following:
There are over 175 million fully vaccinated Americans who are largely protected from severe illness from COVID-19. While so-called “breakthrough infections” among this group do happen, they remain the exception: In fact, recent data indicates there is only 1 confirmed positive case per 5,000 fully vaccinated Americans per week.
That seems like a really low number, but 175 million divided by 5,000 indicates that there are 35,000 confirmed cases a week. And let's be honest, there are probably plenty of other cases that are asymptomatic and therefore the individual infected has no idea about it. And how did they calculate this 1 in 5,000? As the New York Times reported, only seven states are keeping detailed records. And will this 1 in 5,000 drop as those who got the Pfizer vaccine see their immunity wane?
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