Coronavirus: Delta Virus and the Quick Spike?

It is reported that the delta infection is just as contagious as chickenpox. Al Jazeera (Jul 30) reports:

The Delta variant, which was first reported in India, is more transmissible than the viruses that cause MERS, SARS, Ebola, the common cold, the seasonal flu and smallpox, the report said.

. . . Meanwhile, a new CDC study published on Friday showed that three-quarters of individuals who became infected with COVID-19 at public events in a Massachusetts county had been fully vaccinated, suggesting the Delta variant of the virus is highly contagious.

Not only is it very contagious, but it is also causing breakthrough cases.

The speed through which this virus can whip through the population has some like Dr. Scott Gottlieb believing that the current spike in US cases could be finished in a matter of weeks, because we're seriously undercounting infections in this country.

CNBC (Jul 30):

“I wouldn’t be surprised if, on the whole, we’re infecting up to a million people a day right now, and we’re just picking up maybe a 10th of that or less than a 10th of that,” the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner said in an interview on “Squawk Box.”

. . . The current seven-day average of new daily coronavirus cases in the U.S. is roughly 67,000, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins University data.

. . . On Friday, Gottlieb reiterated his view that the U.S. is much further into the surge of delta-driven infections than others believe. “This delta wave will pass, probably at some point in September,” he predicted.

The above target of September appears to be a more conservative take than what he said on Face the Nation (Jul 25) a few days earlier:

If you look at the U.K. right now, and we're probably about three weeks, maybe four weeks behind the U.K., perhaps a little less than that. If you look at the U.K., they do in the last seven days appear to be turning a corner. You're starting to see a downward trajectory on the cases. Now, it's unclear whether that's going to be sustained. They just lifted a lot of the mitigation that they had in place. But if the UK is any guide, we are perhaps further into this epidemic and hopefully going to turn a corner in the next two or maybe three weeks.

On Face the Nation he appears to be targeting late August while on CNBC he is shifting to sometime in September -- let's just say the middle of September.

He is basing his analysis on the UK. As Worldometer indicates, we did see a rapid spike up and then what appears to have been the start of a rapid spike down; however, it seems to me like the spike down might actually be plateauing at a rate that is still much higher than the lows. He does admit his analysis might be flawed. As he notes, the UK "lifted a lot of the mitigation that they had in place." He said that on Face the Nation. Perhaps after seeing the more recent UK data, he shifted the goal posts from late August to sometime in September.

Worldometer also shows that India saw a similar spike up and spike down when it comes to the delta variant. I would expect that Gottlieb is also taking that into account. Of course, when it comes to India, they might very well see another spike in cases. Zerohedge (Jul 27) reported:

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has released the results of its fourth seroprevalence study which was conducted across 21 states in June and July with 36,227 people participating, including 7,252 healthcare workers. It found that 67.6 percent of people over six years of age, some two-thirds of India's population, have Sars-CoV-2 antibodies.

However, as Statista's Niall McCarthy notes, despite that high percentage, at least 400 million people across the country remain at risk of infection and officials warned against relaxing Covid-19 protocols.

According to OurWorldinData, India has only 7.4% of their population that is fully vaccinated, which is really really low. This might explain why India's southern state of Kerala recently implemented a two-day lockdown.

I do hope that Gottlieb is right, but that brings up another question in my mind: isn't it already too late for people in America to get vaccinated in order to avoid this wave of infections? The Pfizer vaccine takes 5 weeks to get fully vaccinated. Moderna's takes 6 weeks. As for J&J, I don't think that one is as effective. Essentially, by the time one is vaccinated (even if it happens right now), this wave will have passed. To me, if an unvaccinated person wants to avoid getting the virus, they better be really careful over the next 6 weeks.

Coronavirus: Obesity Risk

I've done various posts about the health impacts due to COVID-19. Here I write about respiratory, blood clots, heart trouble and other issues. In this post, I talked about long haulers. I've written a few others, as well, that you can find if you wish. 

This New York Times (Mar 8) looks into what causes people to have more dire health impacts:

Now, a large new study, of nearly 150,000 adults at more than 200 hospitals across the United States, paints a more detailed picture of the connection between weight and Covid-19 outcomes.

. . . And among those who are obese, the risk increases as a patient’s body mass index, or B.M.I., a ratio of weight to height, increases. Patients with a B.M.I. of 45 or higher, which corresponds to severe obesity, were 33 percent more likely to be hospitalized and 61 percent more likely to die than those who were at a healthy weight, the researchers found.

Coronavirus: Pfizer's Vaccine Effectiveness in Rapid Decline Over Time?

Are we seeing a rapid decline over time regarding the effectiveness of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine?

CNBC (Jul 23) has an article about a study coming out from Israel:

Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain, but still provides strong protection against severe illness and hospitalization, according to a new report from the country’s Health Ministry.

The efficacy figure, which is based on an unspecified number of people between June 20 and July 17, is down from an earlier estimate of 64% two weeks ago and conflicts with data out of the U.K. that found the shot was 88% effective against symptomatic disease caused by the variant.

Protests in Cuba, Iran, and South Africa

Protests have recently popped up across the globe. Let's take a look at what is happening.

Cuba

Al Jazerra (Jul 17) reports:

On July 11 and 12, thousands of Cubans took to the streets in 40 cities around the island shouting “Freedom,” “Down with the dictatorship,” and “We’re hungry.”

. . . Protesters took to the streets in towns around Cuba last Sunday to protest against power outages, a COVID-19 surge, widespread shortages of basic goods and the one-party political system.

Miami Herald (Jul 15) has some interesting takes from Democrats and progressives:

Democratic Progressive Caucus of Florida:

“The DPCF demands the one thing that the United States has within its power to do right now that we know will immediately and measurably improve the lives of the Cuban people suffering on the island: President Biden, lift the Cuban embargo now!”

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 8: arguments for and against the importance of the CGG-CGG combo?

Will CGG-CGG be for 2021 what COVID-19 was for 2020? 

The Wall Street Journal (Jun 6) had the following to add to the lab leak hypothesis and the importance of the CGG-CGG combo:

If the insertion takes place naturally, say through recombination, then one of those 35 other sequences is far more likely to appear; CGG is rarely used in the class of coronaviruses that can recombine with CoV-2.

. . . In fact, in the entire class of coronaviruses that includes CoV-2, the CGG-CGG combination has never been found naturally. That means the common method of viruses picking up new skills, called recombination, cannot operate here. A virus simply cannot pick up a sequence from another virus if that sequence isn’t present in any other virus.

Although the double CGG is suppressed naturally, the opposite is true in laboratory work. The insertion sequence of choice is the double CGG. That’s because it is readily available and convenient, and scientists have a great deal of experience inserting it. An additional advantage of the double CGG sequence compared with the other 35 possible choices: It creates a useful beacon that permits the scientists to track the insertion in the laboratory.

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 7 - Ramifications if True

The Guardian via Yahoo (Jun 1) has an opinion piece up about the ramifications that could occur if the lab leak hypothesis for the spread of COVID-19 turns out to be true:

Because if the hypothesis is right, it will soon start to dawn on people that our mistake was not insufficient reverence for scientists, or inadequate respect for expertise, or not enough censorship on Facebook. It was a failure to think critically about all of the above, to understand that there is no such thing as absolute expertise.

By "all of the above," the writer is talking about the fact that lab leaks happen, the Wuhan lab was doing gain of function research, that the US was helping fund the research as well as some other listed bullet points that you can read in the link.

The focus of the opinion piece is that this would cause distrust in scientists, social media, etc that would expand beyond conservatives. Yet, I think there is a big miss in this opinion piece. I suspect there would be significant blowback against China. Yes, it appears that the United States provided research funding to the Wuhan lab and so we would be culpable, as well. The article discusses this. I would doubt that US scientists or government officials would have known that the virus leaked from the lab; however.

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 6 -- The Blowback

With a growing drum beat that COVID-19 might had emerged due to a lab leak, there is a growing blowback.

Wired (May 28) has just such an article:

The evidence hasn’t changed since spring of 2020. That evidence was always incomplete, and may never be complete. History and science suggest the animal-jump is way more likely than the lab-leak/cover-up thing. So now what we’re talking about is how people frame their views around the crummy evidence we have.

. . . This is an old playbook. Religious conservatives did it on evolution and education—“teach the controversy!” Snake-oil marketers did it on the nonexistent link between vaccines and autism. Tobacco companies and their lobbyists did it on the very real link between tobacco, second-hand smoke, and cancer. Car companies and their lobbyists did it on safety technologies in automobiles. Chemical and agricultural companies did it on agricultural chemicals from DDT to dicamba. Carbon emitting industries—mostly the oil business—are still doing it on climate change. Find uncertainty, fan it like tinder, and then use it for political gain.

To me, the basic argument in the article is that the lab leak is unlikely, but was always a possibility. Now that people are paying more attention to it, we should view it as something being pushed by charlatans.

Dr. Seuss Controversy: Should Movie Studios Cancel Certain Movies?

I think we all know about the controversy around Dr. Seuss that erupted in early March. The Dr. Seuss Enterprises decided to stop publishing 6 of his books for racial stereotypes. Conservatives erupted in protest. I listened to an hour long Youtube video about the controversy. People argued that cancel culture had gone too far.  

If this trend continues, at what point in time will it shift to other forms of entertainment such as movies? If Dr. Seuss Enterprises finds it necessary to stop publishing 6 books, will movie studios feel like they must take the next step and stop distribution of some of their movies. The most discussed movie (prior to Dr. Seuss) is Gone with the Wind for the false portrayal of slavery and stereotypes of Blacks. Eliminating that movie would be eliminating the largest domestic box office movie (on an inflation adjusted basis) a well as Clark Gable's and Vivien Leigh's most iconic roles.

Oil: Will Recent ExxonMobil Board Changes Impact Future Oil Prices?

An activist investor was able to get three board members voted onto ExxonMobil's Board of Directors. This is seen as a victory for the pro-climate advocates. Yet, could this victory indicate that an oil crisis is coming in the next few years? In one of my first blog posts back in 2017, I pointed out that a lack of investment in exploration could impact oil supply while demand was still growing. I've come back to this basic argument every so often since 2017. One such blog post was this past February when I had this quote from the IEA:

What does this mean for future supply-demand balances and for energy transitions? Already, the decline in investment in 2020 takes an estimated 2.1 mb/d away from anticipated oil supply in 2025, and some 60 billion cubic metres (bcm) off natural gas output. However, if investment were to stay at at 2020 levels for the next five years then this would reduce the previously-expected level of oil supply in 2025 by almost 9 mb/d, and bring down natural gas output in that year by some 240 bcm.

Could this victory by an activist investor result in ExxonMobil contributing to a continued deficit in oil investments? It should be noted that ExxonMobil has 12 board members so how much influence these three new members will have is debatable, but they could have impacts on the margins when it comes to investment decisions.

Anti-Asian Hate Crimes: Media Hysteria or Fact?

Anti-Asian hate crime has been making waves across the news recently. Is it hysteria or fact? Well, I decided to do a little research.

LA Times (Mar 5):

In a survey of police departments in 16 major U.S. cities, the Center for the Study of Hate and Extremism, a research office at Cal State San Bernardino, found a total of 122 anti-Asian hate crimes last year — a 149% increase from the 49 in 2019.

. . . The rise in anti-Asian crimes occurred as total hate crimes against all minority groups dropped 7% — from 1,845 to 1,717.

An increase from 49 to 122 or higher by 73. Is that really a significantly higher number? As a percentage sure, but is 122 really that large of a number? As a percentage, anti-Asian hate crimes increased from 2.7% (49/1,845) to 7.1% (122/1,717) of all hate crimes. 

Now, we should always try to reduce hate crimes against all groups. One of my points is rather or not all these anti-Asian hate crime media stories are verging on hysteria.

. . . A recent Pew survey found negative views of China in the U.S. to hit a nearly 20-year high.

Just a touch of pro-China propaganda there? 

. . . Many of the 2020 incidents in New York — and across the country — occurred in the early days of the pandemic, when fears ran highest.

Coronavirus: Africa in the midst of a Third Wave?

Back in May, I wrote about concerns that Africa could suffer the same COVID-19 fate at India was going through (at that time) in the near future. Fast forward a couple months and there are indicates that Africa is suffering through the start of a wave that is more significant that previous ones. BBC (Jul 2) reports:

New cases have been increasing for six weeks running and rose by an average of 25% week-on-week to almost 202,000 in the week ending on 27 June.

The figure is very close to the continent's previous record of 224,000 new cases a week during the second wave in January.

"The speed and scale of Africa's third wave is like nothing we've seen before. The rampant spread of more contagious variants pushes the threat to Africa up to a whole new level," says Matshidiso Moeti, WHO regional director for Africa.

The spread in cases is being driven by the delta variant (first discovered in India). The Associated Press (Jul 2) reports:

The delta variant, reported in 16 African countries, has become dominant in South Africa, which accounts for more than half of Africa’s new cases. It was detected in 97% of samples sequenced in Uganda and in 79% of samples sequenced in Congo, said the WHO.

Coronavirus: Shuttered Venue Operators Grant Program -- Criticism?

Before the vaccine rollout, independent venues and theaters were shut down across the nation to prevent large gatherings that would result in the spread of COVID-19. There was a push by the National Independent Venue Association for Congress to include bailout funding for these venues in one of the stimulus packages. Senators Amy Klobuchar and John Cornyn took the lead and eventually $16 billion was allocated to save venues across the country under the program called Shutter Venue Operators Grant (SVOG).

As grants are being handed out, a question is being asked: are certain entities taking advantage of the funding?

New York Times (June 29) reports on the musical production "Hamilton":

So why is the show getting $30 million in relief from the federal government, with the possibility of another $20 million coming down the road?

Lincoln Statues Coming Down Across America

Back in August 2017, President Trump wondered if statues to George Washington and Thomas Jefferson would one day get taken down. I recall Democrats laughing at the idea. Here's one NPR (Aug 16,2017) article that was written about the topic:

So "whatabout" them? Must they all go if Robert E. Lee goes?

Not necessarily, because they are not all the same.

Some figures stood for something larger. Washington guided the foundation of a country that eventually preserved freedom for all. Jefferson authored the Declaration of Independence, in which a single phrase — "that all men are created equal" — became a hammer that later generations would use to help smash the chains of slavery.

It's possible to make a case for honoring such men, so long as we are also honest about their flaws. 

Democrats just weren't buying it back in 2017, but now there are numerous stories of previously well regarding American historical figures having their statues taken down. Let's take a look at Abraham Lincoln. One of the arguments currently being made against President Lincoln is that he allowed 38 Native Americans to get hung due to the 1862 Dakota War.

San Francisco Homeless: Tent Cities and the Lap of Luxury?

I've written about Los Angeles and the extraordinary costs associated with attempts to house the homeless. For example, spending $130,000 for 8 by 8 foot shelters and apartment units that cost $630,000. 

Sometimes, it is nice to see what is going on up north in San Francisco. SFist (Mar 4) had this to report:

In the six "Safe Sleeping Villages" set up by the city of San Francisco during the pandemic, the cost of maintaining a single tent-camping spot is $5,000 per month, or $61,000 per year — more than it would cost to put each of these people in a market-rate apartment.