1. Age of the population.
2. Tuberculosis vaccine.
3. Exposure to previous coronaviruses.
4. Experience dealing with Ebola.
5. Lack of global travel.
6. Population spends more time outdoor than other parts of the globe.
7. Quick lockdowns.
For much of this time, the spread was more significant in countries such as South Africa, Morocco and Egypt. But it does look like Ethiopia and Kenya are having a spread of the virus. Kenya specifically looks like it is being hit with a second wave. Once again, the numbers being reported are very small when compared to other continents. For example, South Africa isn't even in the top 50 countries on a case per million basis.
The Associated Press via the New York Post (Nov 19) reports:
The African continent of 1.3 billion people is being warned against “prevention fatigue” as countries loosen pandemic restrictions to ease their economies’ suffering and more people travel.
“We cannot relent. If we relent, then all the sacrifices we put into efforts over the past 10 months will be wiped away,” Africa CDC director John Nkengasong told reporters. He expressed concern that “many countries are not enforcing public health measures, including masking, which is extremely important.”
. . . The African continent has conducted 20 million coronavirus tests since the pandemic began, but shortages mean the true number of infections is unknown.
[World Health Organization’s Africa chief Matshidiso Moeti] worried that in some of Africa’s low-income countries, much of the limited testing capacity has been used on people who want to travel abroad instead of controlling the virus at home.
Of these 20 million tests, Worldometer indicates that around 64% of these tests have occurred in South Africa, Morocco, Ethiopia, Egypt and Kenya. This list looks very similar to the list above in regards to countries with the most infections. These countries represent around 30% of the continent's population.
Africa's restrictions could result in serious ramifications that only appear over the next several years. The Associated Press via Voice of America (Nov 26) reports:
In Uganda, officials have set requirements that schools must meet before they can admit students. Most of them could remain at home until as late as next year. Schools must have enough hand-washing areas and enough space in classrooms and living areas for social distancing.
While the health crisis has affected education around the world, the crisis is more severe in Africa. Up to 80 percent of students do not have access to the internet and distance learning is out of reach for many.
Countries south of the Sahara Desert already have the highest rates of children out of school anywhere in the world. Nearly 20 percent of children between ages six and 11 and more than 30 percent between ages 12 and 14 are not in school. That information comes from the United Nations culture and education agency.
The one point not provided is how many school age students usually don't attend school. Even so, the article provides plenty of antidotal examples of the impact of the virus on schools in Uganda, Kenya and Zimbabwe.
Now to the topic of vaccination. The New York Post article above reports:
While the world takes hope from promising COVID-19 vaccines, African health officials also worry the continent will suffer as richer countries buy up supplies.
“Let’s celebrate the good news” first, Nkengasong said. But he warned that the Pfizer vaccine requires storage at minus -70 C (-94 F) and such a requirement “already creates an imbalance in the fair distribution or access to those vaccines” as richer countries will be better equipped to move quickly.
This is also an argument I've read about the difficulties of getting the Pfizer vaccine to the more rural parts of the United States.
Al Jazeera (Nov 17) adds:
Some parties, including the United States, European Union and the United Kingdom, are staking their claim to what Oxfam senior policy adviser Mohga Kamal-Yanni calls the “lion’s share” of doses.
A recent analysis by Duke University found that countries have already confirmed purchases for 3.8 billion doses and a further 5 billion doses were under negotiation or had been reserved as of late October. Of course, not all experimental immunisations will successfully make it through clinical trials. The US, followed by the EU and India, have so far secured the largest number of potential doses, according to the report.
. . . During the 2009 H1N1 flu outbreak, high-income countries able to produce vaccines refused to export them until their domestic needs were met, researchers wrote in 2019 in the healthcare journal The Milbank Quarterly.
I purposely included this 2009 H1N1 outcome. We can't make the argument that the Trump administration was just being overly selfish. We have to recognize that this approach was also taken under the Obama administration.
South China Morning Post (Nov 28) mentions that China might supply Africa:
China has promised once its vaccines are approved, they will be shared with Africa to help fight the spread of coronavirus, which could be crucial for the countries fearing they will be left out as the US and some European countries make billions from vaccine orders amid rising cases of Covid-19 worldwide.
. . . On Tuesday, John Nkengasong, head of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, told the Bloomberg Invest Africa online conference that the continent was in discussions with China and Russia for possible Covid-19 vaccine partnerships.
[Lawrence Gostin, director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University], however, said he was sceptical of China’s offer. China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Africa showed China had a highly mercantile, transactional approach to health and infrastructure help, he said. “I believe China will help supply some of Africa’s needs, but it will come at a political or economic cost.”
China's grip on Africa is something I wrote about a little over a year ago.
What exactly is the definition of fairness when it comes to the distribution of the vaccine? Africa doesn't appear to be getting hit hard by the virus so shouldn't they be at the back of the line? Of the seven reasons for why the virus isn't spreading in Africa, I would think that 6 of those reasons will not change no matter when Africa gets the vaccine. On the other hand, since they were quick to lockdown, we don't know the true impact this virus could have on the continent. One can't exactly ask a continent to remain in lockdown for over a year while other countries get to open up in the back half of 2021..
I don't want to research what the definition of a poor versus a wealthy country is, but I would think that countries in South America and Iran might be given greater priority over African countries.
If the virus starts to flair up significantly across the continent, then other decisions might need to be made.
China does appear to have a strong grip on the virus. I could see the case that China should supply Africa with the vaccine -- as long as their vaccine really works..
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