Coronavirus: Sweden's Second Wave

When it comes to COVID-19, Sweden is a country that people are keeping an eye on due to their less restrictive policies towards the outbreak. Throughout the summer, it appeared that there were very few cases. But with fall upon us, per Worldometer, it does look like Sweden is facing a second wave. It does look like it may be as strong as the first one in terms of confirmed cases; however, it is likely that the first wave was understated in terms of cases. 

The potential for a second wave has been a concern. In fact, back in August, I wrote:

As Business Insider reports, let's see what occurs when the summer ends. As the article mentions, there are currently fewer people in the office (due to vacations). CBS News reported about the lack of face masks. With people returning to work and with few wearing masks, there should be a spike come October - November (if those assumptions drive infections). I think this is what people will be studying next.

In response to this second wave, CNN (Oct 23) reports that Sweden has implemented certain restrictions. Of course, these restrictions look very similar to restrictions that were put in place at the beginning of the pandemic:

Nightclubs where dancing is permitted will be limited to a capacity of 50 people in Sweden, Prime Minister Stefan Lofven announced Thursday. 

“It’s time for partying in nightclubs to stop,” said Lofven, adding: “It is disrespectful to health care staff, who have worked hard, day and night, when they open a newspaper and see photos from packed nightclubs and dance floors.” The tightening of nightclub restrictions -- still lenient compared with other European countries where nightlife has all but ceased -- comes as the country sees a spike in coronavirus infections. 

Okay, maybe that quote from Lofven is a translation issue, but it does sound sort of like someone is trying to guilt trip Swedes who were just doing what the government itself was allowing them to do. Initially there were restrictions on gatherings above 50 people. This was obviously loosened at a certain point and now they're getting re-applied. Seems like guilt tripping when you bring up health care staff.   
Even with restrictions on gatherings above 50 people at nightclubs, France24 (Oct 23) reports that life continues to carry on and is far more open than other European countries: 

But while many European countries are again introducing draconian measures like partial lockdowns or curfews to curb the spread of the virus, Sweden -- which has recorded 5,930 Covid-related deaths, one of Europe's highest per capita death tolls -- is just adjusting its softer approach with targeted tweaks.

. . . In the capital Stockholm, daily life appears to carry on almost as normal, as locals stroll through the city bundled up against the chilly autumn weather and stopping in at cafes, restaurants and shops that have remained open throughout the pandemic.

Washington Post (Oct 20) has a write-up from Lars Calmfors who is a professor emeritus in International Economics at Stockholm University. He applies some economics to try and determine if Sweden's strategy is working compared to other countries. 

A more complete analysis should consider other factors as well: future health consequences for covid-19 patients, the crowding out of other medical treatments during the pandemic, and the benefits of maintaining a more normal life and keeping more people attached to the labor market. But even a simple calculation, looking only at lives lost, suggests that the costs of the so-called Swedish “strategy” were too high. One thing Sweden may perhaps have done right was to keep day-care centers and elementary schools open. Closing them would have prevented many parents from working, at great cost to their economic output and their livelihoods, and to pupils’ opportunities to learn. There appears to be no evidence that these institutions played an important role in spreading the virus in Sweden . . . 

The jury is still out on how well Sweden copes with the pandemic in the longer run . . . 

I do like that last quote. We aren't through this pandemic yet. Who knows which countries have taken the correct path. At this point, it is all speculation. We might not actually know until years after the pandemic is under control to determine the total costs and benefits to various countries.