After 102 days of no community cases (I do believe there were cases from people coming to New Zealand), a family was diagnosed with the virus. The initial thought on the cases was that it could be traced back to frozen food shipments as one of the individuals worked at a place that handled such imports. The Chinese have also speculated that some of their recent cases were due to imported frozen food. Fortune (Aug 17) reported that New Zealand no longer believes that theory:
New Zealand's mysterious new coronavirus outbreak did not originate from frozen food shipments, the country's health department said on Tuesday.
"Seems clear now that the possibility is being ruled out from that investigation," said Director General of Health Ashley Bloomfield, according to Reuters. He did not provide specifics on the probe but said a full report on it will be released later this week.Public health authorities in New Zealand are still investigating the outbreak, which began on Aug. 11 when four family members in Auckland, New Zealand's biggest city, tested positive for the coronavirus. A total of 69 active cases—out of 90 nationwide—are linked to the Auckland cluster. New Zealand reported 13 new cases on Tuesday.
ABC News (Aug 18) added:
Dr. John Lednicky, a research professor at the University of Florida – Gainesville who studies respiratory viruses, including the virus responsible for COVID-19, calls this phenomenon "smoldering transmission." Essentially, he proposes that the virus may have been spreading in low levels all along in pockets of New Zealand.
. . . But others say smoldering transmission is unlikely. "The wide testing being done shows the virus hasn't secretly been hanging around in New Zealand for the last few months," claimed Dr. Siouxsie Wiles, a microbiologist at the University of Auckland. To her, the origins of the new outbreak are "still a bit of a mystery."
Health authorities have said the most likely scenario is that the virus hitched a ride with a traveler from overseas.
Dr. John Lednicky, a research professor at the University of Florida – Gainesville who studies respiratory viruses, including the virus responsible for COVID-19, calls this phenomenon "smoldering transmission." Essentially, he proposes that the virus may have been spreading in low levels all along in pockets of New Zealand.
. . . But others say smoldering transmission is unlikely. "The wide testing being done shows the virus hasn't secretly been hanging around in New Zealand for the last few months," claimed Dr. Siouxsie Wiles, a microbiologist at the University of Auckland. To her, the origins of the new outbreak are "still a bit of a mystery."
Health authorities have said the most likely scenario is that the virus hitched a ride with a traveler from overseas.
Now to why I'm bringing this topic up. I replied to a Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding tweet where he said that early action on the coronavirus can prevent long term economic damage.
Tourism directly impacts 5.8% of their GDP and indirectly 4%. Tourism is a big part of their economy and putting tight border controls restricts their biggest exports (which seems strange to say exports as tourists are visiting New Zealand).
A CNN (Aug 21) article explores this topic further:
But [New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern] and her government said it was the right one to protect the health of both the public and the economy -- and by April, New Zealand announced that it had achieved its goal of eliminating the virus.
. . . "Our attempt to eliminate Covid is an obsession that will destroy us," wrote columnist Damien Grant on the country's biggest news website, Stuff.co.nz. He echoed sentiments that have been rattling around New Zealand for a while -- in their paper in July, Gluckman, Clark and Fyfe questioned whether New Zealand could afford to wait out another year or two "in almost total physical isolation."
. . . So far, statistics show that New Zealand's tough approach hasn't had a devastating economic cost. Earlier this month, the government reported only 4% unemployment, although the underutilization rate grew from 10.4% to 12%, the largest quarterly rise since 2004.Devil's Advocate. Tourism makes up a nice piece of their GDP. They're not lifting border restrictions. What if we don't come up with a vaccine for a couple years. Aren't they likely to suffer a severe recession anyways?
— EquivalencyAxis (@EquivalencyAxis) June 8, 2020
Tourism directly impacts 5.8% of their GDP and indirectly 4%. Tourism is a big part of their economy and putting tight border controls restricts their biggest exports (which seems strange to say exports as tourists are visiting New Zealand).
A CNN (Aug 21) article explores this topic further:
But [New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern] and her government said it was the right one to protect the health of both the public and the economy -- and by April, New Zealand announced that it had achieved its goal of eliminating the virus.
. . . "Our attempt to eliminate Covid is an obsession that will destroy us," wrote columnist Damien Grant on the country's biggest news website, Stuff.co.nz. He echoed sentiments that have been rattling around New Zealand for a while -- in their paper in July, Gluckman, Clark and Fyfe questioned whether New Zealand could afford to wait out another year or two "in almost total physical isolation."
How much longer can New Zealand shut down 5.8% of their economy (9.8% when including indirect benefits) without the country heading into a serious recessions?
Insight Guides states that the high season for tourism runs from December through March. It is very possible that the real economic hit has yet to come as the country shut down travel around mid-March so that shouldn't have resulted in much of an economic impact. Probably most of the tourists who would have impacted March's economic data were already in the country.
Now the start of the high season, December, is just 3 months away.
Since I doubt the virus will be gone by then, will New Zealand still keep their tourism industry shut down (maybe only allowing tourists in from China and South Korea)?
Since I doubt the virus will be gone by then, will New Zealand still keep their tourism industry shut down (maybe only allowing tourists in from China and South Korea)?
Currently, the country only has a 4% unemployment rate. (On the other hand, the under-utilization rate is 12%. I'm guessing this is similar to America's u6 unemployment rate, which is defined as people working part-time who would prefer to work full-time. This higher rate is probably the result of a lack of tourism during their less busy season.) Come December, will their 4% unemployment rate skyrocket? If their policy does not change, I'd argue yes.
No comments:
Post a Comment