Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Libya: Bogged Down

BBC has an Oct 27, 2019 article up that states that there isn't much movement in the battle between the Libyan National Army (Benghazi/Tobruk) and the Government of National Accord (Tripoli).

He [Haftar] heads the self-styled Libyan National Army, and already controls most of the country. But six months on, Tripoli still eludes the moustachioed military strongman, who is backed by the Tobruk-based government. He is stuck on the southern outskirts of the city.

. . . "This conflict is largely sustained by the foreign powers backing Haftar," said Emad Badi, a Libyan non-resident scholar at the US-based Middle East Institute.

. . . "Haftar can't and won't win, but Egypt and the Emiratis can't afford to lose. The Egyptians want to control their Western neighbour, and they don't want terrorism on their border. For them it's existential," he said.



Now why wouldn't countries like Egypt and the Emiratis just push for negotiations between the Libyan National Army (LNA) and the Government of National Accord (GNA) so that this civil war can end? Perhaps that would allow a national government to clamp down on terrorist groups? The following from Reuters might provide a glimpse into why certain countries don't want to back the Government of National Accord (considered the official government via the UN):

Gunmen raided two trendy seafront cafes in the Libyan capital Tripoli this month to banish unmarried couples and impose strict religious codes, witnesses said, in a move that has alarmed civil liberties defenders.

. . . On social media the raids sparked a wave of criticism against the Special Defence Force (SDF), Tripoli’s most powerful Salafist-leaning group, which has modeled itself as the capital’s primary anti-crime and counter-terrorism force.

The article does state that the SDF is there to prevent terrorism. Yet, Wikipedia mentions that "Jihadi Salafi groups include Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Boko Haram, and the Al-Shabaab." So yeah, maybe this is a reason certain nation-states are supporting the LNA as they're dependent on militias like this to keep it in power.

In other random events in Libya:

TRT World mentions:

A Libyan military prosecutor on Tuesday ordered the arrest of warlord Khalifa Haftar and three other retired commanders. According to a statement by the military chief prosecutor’s office, Haftar and three retired commanders were accused of commanding a Russian group that carried out kidnappings and murders on September 24. 

Sort of provides additional proof that the Russians are supporting the LNA.

Reuters has this about the reopening of Tripoli's airport:

The airport had been shut since Sept. 1 after being repeatedly struck by artillery fire and air strikes blamed on eastern forces of Khalifa Haftar, which have been trying to take the capital since April.

The LNA had said it was targeting an operations room for Turkish drones at the facility. Turkey backs the Tripoli government, while Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have provided support for Haftar. “The airport is free of any military manifestations,” [Transport Minister Milad] Matoq said.

I'm assuming there was some discussion between the LNA and GNA to make sure that the airport could re-open.

Reuters also has this about oil:

On Tuesday, NOC said it had been unable to pay salaries for Brega workers in central and eastern areas under control of Haftar’s forces after the parallel board “obstructed payment by Tripoli,” a statement said. 

I guess the NOC doesn't have direct deposit? As the article states, the LNA attempted a year ago to create a parallel organization to the NOC (Libya's oil firm). The reason it failed was because oil is only allowed to be sold by the NOC and world governments recognized this fact. The LNA was forced to back down. It looks like there is another attempt and I suspect the non-payment is a ruthless way to try and convince workers to switch to the parallel organization.

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