A senior LNA official told Asharq Al-Awsat that National Army forces advanced took control over new areas in their advanced towards Aziziyah, about 40 kilometers south of Tripoli.
. . . The media loyal to the GNA quoted some of its military officials as saying that its air force bombed an LNA convoy on its way to the airport, located in the coastal city of Sirte. It noted that most of the vehicles in the convoy, which had departed from al-Jufra air base, were destroyed in the bombing.
Okay, the quotes are from media sources from the LNA (Eastern Libya) and the GNA (Tripoli). Can they really be trusted for accuracy? If the LNA report is accurate, they are definitely making moves towards Tripoli. In previous months, the news revolved around the battle for Gharyan. The LNA took control of the town and then the GNA took back control And then the LNA attempted to re-gain control. Via Google Maps, Azziayh appears to be in the middle between Gharvan and Tripoli.
As for the GNA, Sirte is to the east of Tripoli. It appears that the LNA is making moves on that city.
The US and Libya
Via Reuters (Sep 27):
U.S. forces said on Friday they killed 17 suspected militants in their third air strike in a week on southern Libya.
. . . . Some Islamic State militants retreated south into Libya’s desert as the group lost its stronghold in the coastal city of Sirte at the end of 2016.
These air strikes have to be in support of the LNA's southern front.
Russia and Libya
Voice of America (Oct 4) has the following to say:
As many as 35 Russian mercenaries are reported to have been killed in Libya while they were fighting for Khalifa Haftar [LNA] . . . The mercenaries are thought to work for the Wagner Group, a military contractor run by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a businessman nicknamed Putin’s Chef because he holds lucrative Kremlin catering contracts . . . Western intelligence and military officials estimate that several hundred Russian soldiers are now present in Libya, providing the self-styled Field Marshal Haftar with logistical support and artillery as well as operating military drones.
The Daily Beast (Sep 12) brings some additional intrigue into the Russian/Wagner Group situation:
Another set of documents outline a strategic alternative to boosting the unimpressive field marshal’s political fortunes—a campaign to help his opponent Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of the late dictator Muammar Gaddafi and an international fugitive from charges of crimes against humanity.
It looks like the Russians are all in in terms of taking down the GNA. If Haftar fails, they're going with Gaddafi. Of course, this potential double loyalty has to be putting pressure of Haftar to finally gain full victory.
As I wrote n the previous post, Turkey is backing the GNA. What are the chances that Turkey and Russian military/mercenary forces are killing each other in Libya?
World Powers and Libya
Just to close things out, here's what Reuters (Sep 26) has:
Egypt, along with the United Arab Emirates, is a supporter of Libyan eastern commander Khalifa Haftar, whose Libya National Army (LNA) has been trying to take Tripoli from forces allied with the internationally recognized government (GNA). Turkey and Qatar both back the GNA. Those nations, including Italy, Germany and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council - Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States - which also have rivalries in Libya, met to break the deadlock and enable a U.N. peace plan to move ahead.
Note that this quote is dated Sep 26th and on Oct 2nd (basically a week later), the LNA is making a big move towards Tripoli. Based on what I've read, I'm uncertain when the Russian mercenaries were killed so I can't say if the Russians have stepped things up, as well, since the UN discussions. Obviously, the weather is turning towards fall so that might be a reason why the fighting is picking up, but one also has to speculate that perhaps the LNA is feeling pressure both from Russia and perhaps the fear of an attempted brokered deal to wrap this all up. To me, if there is a brokered deal, this is bad news for Haftar. I'd assume he'd look like a big failure among those who make up the LNA.
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