Since then [cancellation of the July 4th elections], the opaque coalition of political and military figures considered the country’s true power, known as le pouvoir, has been reluctant to make any further concessions.
The interim president, Abdelkader Bensalah, remains in power alongside the all-powerful army chief, Ahmed Gaïd Salah, while protesters say they will persist until the military-backed government is replaced by a civilian democracy. No new elections are scheduled.
Two former prime ministers, Ahmed Ouyahia and Abdelmalek Sellal, have been arrested along with several former MPs.
Eighteen protesters were arrested and put on trial in July accused of “undermining national unity” for waving the flag of the country’s marginalised Berber minority at protests.
I actually find it interesting that these protests have gone on for 6 months with little interference (from what I can tell) by the military. If anything, the military appears to attempting to consolidate their power among the elites, by arresting politicians and business leaders. Yes, there were the arrest of 18 protestors, but this seems rather minor when millions are protesting.
The Washington Post has this from Dalia Ghanem who is an expert on Algeria:
Political institutions such as the People’s National Assembly, officials, legislators, members of the current government and political parties are all rejected by the popular movement that refuses any dialogue with former members of the regime. There is a total disconnect between social mobilization and political institutionalization and hence no channels for the communication of the people’s demand to the government.
If the military can have guarantees that the civilian government can protect its interests (i.e., in the way of allocating resources) and the leadership fate (i.e., no legal prosecution), this could help it move on.
The article also has an interesting history lesson on the military involvement in Algeria.
The article goes on to state that millions are protesting. Back in April, the Washington Post stated the protests were in the tens of thousands. Either the various numbers are over- or under-exaggerated or the protests have grown significantly since April. It should be noted that protests in the tens of thousands were able to topple President Adbelaziz Bouteflika, but with even more individuals on the streets there is a political standstill.
The above quote is the key point on why we might have a standstill. The popular movement does not have any respect for the politicians and military. And essentially, the only way the military will step aside is if they're guaranteed a piece of the pie. Yet, the only group that can give the military that assurance would be the politicians, who of course can't form a government, because the popular movement won't support them.
The author concludes that the army, politicians and civilians need to determine an acceptable role for the military. Of course, the author doesn't venture to provide what that new role would be. I can understand why as even an Algerian expert probably has no clue where that solution is.
I'm not sure the military wants a solution with the popular movement. I think their actions so far is to consolidate power among the elite (via their arrests). They don't want an acceptable outcome to arise with the movement. So either the movement is going to have to die down at some point and then the military can install loyalists or the military will force the protests to end. Of course, the protests have gone on for 6 months so the military seems very patient in waiting for things to simmer down. And taking a forceful stance on the protests could lead to unwanted outcomes such as . . . . the other option would be for the protesters to take a more violent stance. After 6 months of peaceful protests, that doesn't appear to be around the corner. Though the longer the stand-off continues, the greater the chance that emotions bubble over.
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