Reuters was up first on March 9th. It is mentioned that this was all set in motion by the actions that the LNA took recently in southern Libya. This military move caused concern at the U.N., which backs the Tripoli government. And I suppose that with the success in taking control of oil wells in the south, the LNA got a boost in confidence to aim for total control of Libya.
He [Khalifa Haftar] has not said whether he wants to march on Tripoli, which would dramatically escalate tensions. But his Libyan National Army (LNA) has hinted heavily that it might do so — if Haftar is not recognized as the country’s overall military commander, his aim since he began assembling the force in 2014. “The same sources said there is coordination with some units inside Tripoli and its suburbs for the army to enter Tripoli.”
The article notes that the LNA is made up of key forces loyal to Haftar along with others who are ex-Gaddafi soldiers, various tribes, Salafists, Sudanese and Chadian fighters. I question the Chadian thought unless they're Chadians associated with the Chad government. The reasons I wonder about this is that in June 2018, Chadian mercenaries briefly took control of oil ports near Benghazi and the LNA had to push them out. The Guardian also wrote in February that the French military were bombing Chadian rebels. (France backs the LNA.)
The article goes on to show potential LNA roadblocks to Tripoli.
First, the government in Tripoli led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj doesn't have its own military force, but it is backed by the U.N.
Second, the biggest opposition would be the city of Misrata, which is east of Tripoli.
Weeks after Haftar started his Benghazi campaign in 2014 Misrata forces moved on Tripoli, expelling a government allied to a Haftar partner in one-month battle that split Libya. The main motive was fear of a Haftar coup.
Misrata has had concerns with Haftar dating all the way to 2014.
Bloomgberg did a March 14 story on the situation.
Alarmed, international powers are clamoring to avert a military showdown that could rattle global oil markets and sow further chaos in a divided country already struggling to defeat Islamic State and stem the flow of migrants toward Europe.
The article mentions that various nations are trying to discourage Haftar from marching on Tripoli. They include the U.S. along with Russia, U.A.E., France and Egypt. It is interesting how both Russia and the U.S. support Haftar.
The Bloomberg article mentions other roadblocks to Haftar taking Tripoli.
Third, Sirte. Sirte is a city east of Misrata (and therefore Tripoli). They've mobilized their military forces.
Fourth, the LNA is having issues in southern Libya via one of the tribes, Tebu.
The article also shines some additional light on Misrata: A Misratan official said a force had prepared recently to attack the LNA’s rear but later stood down. “Misrata won’t fight unless Haftar comes to the city,” he said.
My theory: these suggestions that the LNA might march on Tripoli is simply an attempt to negotiate a percentage of the oil revenues. Various nations that back the LNA are telling Haftar not to march on Tripoli. Various cities around Tripoli are not eager to support Haftar. They are having some issues in southern Libya due to the Tebu tribe. It sounds like they need to take some time to regroup or risk getting over-stretched. To me, a better strategy by the LNA would be to get some additional oil revenues that they can spread around to their supporters.
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