The current anti-Maduro protests appear to have started based on:
The march is coming at a critical moment, with Maduro seemingly off balance after several dozen mutinous national guard soldiers stormed a military post in central Caracas, seizing weapons and calling on other members of the armed forces for support. The government quickly put down the uprising, arresting 27 and dismissing it as an isolated incident.
From this, the president of the National Assembly, Juan Guaido, declared himself the leader of the country:
In his first public speech since Wednesday, when he proclaimed himself Venezuela’s legitimate leader in a massive protest march in the capital, Caracas, the 35-year-old president of the National Assembly tried to capitalize on discontent with the Maduro government while making the case that a better future was within reach.
Let's first remember that Venezuela had massive protests in 2017, which ultimately failed to over-throw Maduro. So what do I think the chances are for Guaido to force Maduro out of power?
I say the chances of Guaido gaining power are slim. Why? It comes down to the military. Yes, these protests started off with national guard soldiers trying to start a coup. However, no one else on the military side followed their lead. And why would they? We have to remember that Maduro handed over the reigns of PDVSA to Major General Manuel Quevedo. The military runs the oil industry and they take a slice of the profits as described by Reuters (which I discussed in an earlier blog post).
Bloomberg has this quote:
Maduro has simply handed them too many lucrative prizes, which the U.S. contends have allowed them to accumulate huge fortunes. The top ranks control the ports, have contracts for hundreds of social housing projects and valuable mining and oil services concessions and hold the reins to Venezuela’s crown jewel, Petroleos de Venezuela SA.
We know that Venezuela produces about 1.52 mb/d of oil. We know WTI sells at around $53.50. If oil from Venezuela sells for around the same amount, we know that they're pulling in around $80 million a day (less whatever is due China and Russia). The military is getting a nice slice of the pie, I'm sure. Why would they support Guaido taking power from Maduro. They probably won't get the same deal from Guaido.
What are some other outcomes other than Maduro staying in power?
One thought is that the military could toss Maduro. But then would the military really want to be in full charge of a country that is in chaos? Why not let Maduro try to deal with the messed up economy while they just profit from what they take off the top from the oil industry? I would think they'd only make this move if they really felt the Maduro was losing control of the political situation.
We could have a situation where the military splits. Some side with the people (those who aren't getting part of the oil pie) while others side with Maduro. That would lead to a civil war. It would also likely send citizens rushing to the borders.
What else to consider?
We have to remember that the Chinese and Russians loaned money to Venezuela and are paid back with oil. I'm sure they'd rather keep Maduro in power. If Guaido comes to power, it is likely that those deals will get adjusted.
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