Thursday, October 11, 2018

Sweden: Negotiations (involving far right party Sweden Democrats?)

Just to list out the major players before going into Sweden's post-election politics:

Swedish parliament speaker: Andreas Norlén

Leader of the centre-right Alliance (Moderate party): Ulf Kristersson

Past prime minister though still caretaker of the government (centre-left bloc): Stefan Löfven

Sweden Democrats leader (far right political group): Jimmie Åkesson

Moderates chairman (part of the Alliance): Benjamin Dousa

Centre-left bloc parties:

Social Democrats (100 seats)
Left Party (28)
Green Party (16)

Alliance parties:

Moderates (70)
Centre Party (31)
Christian Democrats (22)
Liberals (20)

Sweden Democrats (62)



The Local, a Swedish news site, had the following on October 2nd:

After meeting the party leaders for a second round of talks on Tuesday, newly-elected speaker Andreas Norlén put forward Kristersson [Alliance] as his proposal for who should be in charge of forming a government.

The Alliance was given two weeks to form a government. Per the article, both the Alliance and the centre-left bloc are willing to support a minority government (that being, either group won't have the majority, but the other side will step aside and let the government form). Of course, both believe the other side should step aside. This stalemate puts the focus on the far right Sweden Democrats, which both groups have said they don't wish to negotiate with; however, via the UK Express (Oct 3rd) we learn there are those reaching out to the Sweden Democrats, specifically the Moderates' chairman Benjamin Dousa who said:

“But without speculating too much, it is the Sweden Democrats that has clearly stated they want to see a change of Government.”

The Sweden Democrats response was:

“Yes, we want to contribute to getting another Government in place, but our support is not free which is completely reasonable . . . “I am prepared to back Ulf Kristersson in exchange for our influence in proportion to our election results.”

The report also noted that two political parties would leave the Alliance (Moderates and Christian Democrats) if the Sweden Democrats joined the Alliance. So basically, the Moderates want support from the Sweden Democrats to form a minority government and are reaching out to the party, but don't want them involved to help form a majority government. Well, that argument was as of October 3rd.

Please note that the UK Express appears to have the breakdown of the seats wrong. It states that the center-left bloc has 144 seats while the Alliance has 145 seats. I believe the Alliance is at 143.

The UK Express does quote a Sweden political expert who anticipates that the Moderates will suck it up and form a government with the Sweden Democrats. I suppose political power is just too tempting.

But Swedish election expert Li Bennich-Björkman has said she believes Kristerssons will eventually eat humble pie and give the Sweden Democrats the influence they crave.

Breitbart (of all places) provides additional insight on Oct 8th that shows some additional movement by the Moderate party and that Li Bennich-Bjorkman's prediction on October 3rd might be accurate:

Populist Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson has offered to resign as party leader if the move would help secure a coalition with the reluctant Moderate Party . . . The proposal comes after a survey of Moderate Party politicians performed by Swedish newspaper Expressen revealed that a majority of the party’s elected officials were open to coalition talks with the SD. 

So maybe the Moderates aren't so against forming a government with the Sweden Democrats. Should a compromise be reached and even if the Christian Democrats withdrew from the Alliance, the reconfigured Alliance would have 183 seats, which would put them over the 175 majority threshold. Though would a revised configuration that included Liberals, Center Party, Sweden Democrats and Moderates work? Sweden Democrats' Jimmie Åkesson in the UK Express stated that the Liberals and Center Party want to increase the flow of immigrants, which the Sweden Democrats are against. It seems to me that fitting the Sweden Democrats into the Alliance still has additional hurdles. 





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