Eastern Libya News Part 2: Conflict with Tripoli?

Conflict with the Tripoli Government? Via Reuters, we learned earlier this month that the Prime Minister (in Tripoli) recently reshuffled his cabinet.

In the reshuffle, Serraj appointed Fathi Ali Bashagha as interior minister. He comes from the western city of Misrata and is close to its armed groups, some of which took part in the Tripoli clashes. The government also named a new economy and industry minister, Ali Abdulaziz Issawi, who comes from Benghazi in eastern Libya, home to a rival administration. Issawi is a veteran figure from the rebels who toppled Gaddafi.

I speculated at the time: It isn't mentioned in the Reuters article, but it would be interesting who lost their job as interior minister. Also, not sure if the economy and industry minister is a new position or got a new minister. Either way, someone has to be upset by these appointments.

Eastern Libya News Part 1: Expansion into Southern Libya?

Expanding to the South? Asharq al-Awsat (admittedly, I've never heard of this site) reports the following about the Libyan National Army (the LNA controls Eastern Libya via strongman Khalifa Haftar):

The spokesman for the Libyan National Army, Brigadier General Ahmad al-Mesmari, said that Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar is planning to eradicate Sudanese, Chad and local insurgent groups that are threatening the national and strategic security in the south.

Sweden: Social Democrats turn to form a government

Sweden is currently attempting to form a government. To form a government, a party (or group of parties) needs 175 votes. A minority government can form if other parties allow it. As mentioned in prior blogs, their are 2 main blocks of parties: the centre-left and the Alliance. There is also the far-right Sweden Democrats.

There was already one attempt to form a government via the Alliance.

Currently the centre-left is attempting to form a government.

Via Politico:

Sweden’s caretaker Prime Minister Stefan Löfven has two weeks to try to form a governing coalition after the center right failed to win support in the wake of September’s indecisive election . . . The acting premier said he would speak to all the mainstream parties, including center-left groups allied to his Social Democrats and those from the Moderate-led Alliance. But he said he wouldn’t consult the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats, who have so far been ruled out as potential partners by both major parties. 

Oil: Petrochemicals Growth Forecast

IEA released a forecast for petrochemicals demand growth. Per the article, petrochemicals are plastics, fertilizers, packaging, clothing, digital devices, medical equipment, detergents and tires.

Petrochemicals are set to account for more than a third of the growth in world oil demand to 2030, and nearly half the growth to 2050, adding nearly 7 million barrels of oil a day by then. They are also poised to consume an additional 56 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas by 2030, and 83 bcm by 2050.

Demand for plastics – the key driver for petrochemicals from an energy perspective – has outpaced all other bulk materials (such as steel, aluminium, or cement), nearly doubling since 2000. Advanced economies currently use up to 20 times more plastic and up to 10 times more fertilizer than developing economies on a per capita basis, underscoring the huge potential for global growth.

Based on this, the growth won't be driven by the US and Europe, but by developing economies catching up to the US and Europe.

Venezuela: Economic Crisis Update

First off via the Economic Times, we learn that the International Monetary Fund is predicting inflation in Venezuela will hit 10 million percent.

The collapse has led to shortages of food, medicine and other basic goods, and prompted an exodus of Venezuelans that has overwhelmed neighboring countries. The IMF said on Tuesday the economy would contract 18 percent in 2018, consistent with its July forecast, and 5 percent in 2019.

Reuters has an article about how recent moves by the Venezuelan government has led to protests at the oil corporation PDVSA. Venezuela recently increased the minimum wage by 60-fold. Of course, this leads those who were making above minimum wage to protest:

Sweden: Negotiations (involving far right party Sweden Democrats?)

Just to list out the major players before going into Sweden's post-election politics:

Swedish parliament speaker: Andreas Norlén

Leader of the centre-right Alliance (Moderate party): Ulf Kristersson

Past prime minister though still caretaker of the government (centre-left bloc): Stefan Löfven

Sweden Democrats leader (far right political group): Jimmie Åkesson

Moderates chairman (part of the Alliance): Benjamin Dousa

Centre-left bloc parties:

Social Democrats (100 seats)
Left Party (28)
Green Party (16)

Alliance parties:

Moderates (70)
Centre Party (31)
Christian Democrats (22)
Liberals (20)

Sweden Democrats (62)

Libya: Tripoli News

The Washington Post recently had a lengthy article on Libya. In some ways it is just summarizing some of the militia fighting that is occurring between the Seventh Brigade, that comes from outside of Tripoli, versus the militias that are located in Tripoli, Tripoli Revolutionary Brigades and the Nawasi. The article does have this interesting analysis:

“The GNA has been on life support for a considerable period of time,” said Mary Fitzgerald, a Libya researcher who has focused on the country’s militias. “This current episode underscores its powerlessness, and the fact that it depends on these armed groups more than these armed groups depend on it.” Serraj’s [Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj] words “simply do not have any effect,” she said.

Oil: Future Supply Shock?

Wood Mackenzie, a research and consulting group, recently issued a report about the lack of major oil discoveries. This lack of major oil discoveries is directly correlated to a lack of investment. The study is based on a revised forecast by the group, looking out to 2040.

Their big concern is that exploration spending has dropped from $60 billion in 2014 to $25 billion in 2018. The result is that discoveries of oil has dropped from 8 bn bbls p.a. in the early 2010s to just 2 bn bbls p.a. since 2014. (My assumption is that bn bbls p.a. means billion barrels per annum).

Tesla: SEC Lawsuit

The big news last week on Tesla was that:

a.) The SEC thought it had a deal with Elon Musk regarding his 420/funding secure to take his company private tweet and the necessary penalties due to that tweet.

b.) The deal fell apart so the SEC brought a lawsuit (Thursday, 9/27).

c.) On Saturday (9/29), Elon Musk accepted a deal that was worse than what was reportedly the deal he initially rejected.