Libya: Part 4 - LNA backs down on oil grab

I previously wrote a couple weeks back that the LNA decided to lay claim on the oil terminals of Ras Lanuf and Sidra. The terminals were originally run by the National Oil Corporation (NOC) that reports to Tripoli. My speculation was that the take-over had to do with control of the oil money.

Via the Guardian it was reported that Khalifa Haftar (LNA) backed down and handed control back to the NOC. Here are some points:

1. The US did not back the LNA move.

2. Various other allies including France, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates did not back the take-over.



Both 1 and 2 are obvious reasons for why Haftar backed down. These allies provide the LNA with military might. As mentioned in Reuters, the LNA gained control of Derna against a handful of militants. Derna is a city to the east where the LNA was attempting to push out Islamic militants. How did they do this?

In Derna, the LNA’s progress has been much faster, aided by what their opponents said were precision air strikes carried out by drones. Neighboring Egypt, one of several foreign powers that has provided support for Haftar, has in the past carried out air strikes in Derna against what it described as training camps sending militants into Egypt to carry out attacks. 

LNA holds on to power via the military might of its allies. I suspect that military support is far more important than money.

3. Haftar claimed (quote via Guardian): He had been pressing privately for Saddek Elkaber, the governor of the Libyan central bank, to step down, claiming that Elkaber was funnelling cash from the oil industry to militias opposed to him. 

This is entirely possible as oil revenues are shared with various sources. It would also be a way for Western Libya to weaken Eastern Libya.

4. The Guardian writes that the ports were "handed back to NOC control without any obvious tangible concession being made to Haftar." That's true, but there was also this statement from the NOC: “We need a proper national debate on the fair distribution of oil revenues. It is at the heart of the recent crisis. The real solution is transparency, so I renew my call on the responsible authorities, the ministry of finance and central bank, to publish budgets and detailed public expenditure. “I will work with other national stakeholders to enhance transparency and resolve this crisis – for the benefit of all our citizens.”

Now that statement from the NOC is really pushing responsibility to Tripoli.

Some of my thoughts: Haftar has to be frustrated with the fact that the ports were taken with help from Chadian mercenaries. I suspect that Tripoli knows that money is being funneled to Chadian mercenaries. How worried are they about this? I think it is a balancing act. They probably don't mind when various fractions attack the LNA. Yet, the capture of the oil terminals probably went too far. Perhaps they don't mind chaos in the east as it perhaps allows them more to time strengthen their own political and military power. It is interesting that the UN backs the Tripoli based government while the US, France, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates back the LNA. How is this going to work out in the future? There has to be support for the LNA as they help deal with Islamic militias (such as those that controlled Derna). How do these powers deal with the future point in time when the UN asks that both sides recognize a single government. You probably go with the side that has the most likelihood to keep the area clear of Islamic militias.