Tuesday, June 26, 2018

LIbya: Part 1 - Eastern Libya Battles

Khalifa Haftar returned to Libya in late April after his health emergency that caused rumors to erupt. Via Reuters, his Libyan National Army (LNA) is now near total control of the city of Derna.  Derna is a city about 290 kilometers (180 miles) east of Benghazi. Like Benghazi, it is also a coaster city. According to the article, there are only about 50 opposition fighters left in the city.

The article has the following summary of those fighting the LNA:

The LNA says the Derna Protection Force (DPF), the coalition that has held Derna until now and ousted Islamic State from the city in 2015, is fighting with extremists linked to al Qaeda, who have used car bombings and harbored foreign fighters. Haftar’s opponents in the city deny having associations with jihadists, saying they are fighting to preserve their independence and counter military rule.

So it looks like Derna went from being controlled by ISIS to being controlled by al Qaeda and is now on the verge of being controlled by the LNA. This city has gone through a lot.



To the west of Benghazi, there are oil ports that are controlled by the LNA that were attacked by militants. Once again, via Reuters we get some details. The attacks were conducted against the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf oil ports. The attacks were by the Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB). They had previously attempted a similar take-over in March 2017. It appears that an individual named Ibrahim Jathran in the commander of the BDB.

The key quote is:

Military sources said the LNA had withdrawn from both ports.

The article doesn't go on to say that the BDB took control of the ports; however, another article by The National does say:

Libyan National Army forces launched a counter-attack on Saturday to regain key oil ports seized by militias as the country’s civil war escalates. 

So it does seem that the LNA lost control of the ports.

One has to wonder if the BDB attacked because the LNA refused to give them a larger cut of the oil pie or if the BDB just wanted full control of the oil ports. The National states that this attack caught the LNA by surprise. So I'm thinking that the BDB was being given some oil money to stay on the sidelines. And I'm thinking they are hoping for some negotiations to get more of a cut. If they weren't, they'd just blow up parts of the port, because what are the chances that they hold on to those ports.

The LNA is stretched militarily. Derna appears close to being wrapped up. We need to see how strong the BDB is. If the LNA can gain control of both locations in the near future (and I think they will), there is an interesting event coming up. It is mentioned that the UN is attempting to hold elections on December 10th. If the LNA controls Derna and the ports come December, they are in a position of strength and can deal with these elections from that position.



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