Cambridge University: Repeating a BP study

Researches from Cambridge University along with researchers from Radbound University, the Open University, Macau University and Cambridge Econometrics posted a study that argued that we could find ourselves in a "Carbon Bubble." If I'm readying the abstract correctly, they appear to be pinpointing 2035 as the year the bubble bursts.

Though the link only provides the highlights, I'm not sure the basics are any different from these two BP articles (here and here.) BP's basic argument is that we could be approaching a point where we go from a "shift in paradigm from an age of (perceived) scarcity to an age of abundance." BP also argues we will hit peak demand around 2035 and that 30% of all car kilometers in 2040 will be done via electric vehicles.



What does the Cambridge study state?

However, new research suggests that the momentum behind technological change in the global power and transportation sectors will lead to a dramatic decline in demand for fossil fuels in the near future . . . Detailed simulations produced by an international team of economists and policy experts show this fall in demand has the potential to leave vast reserves of fossil fuels as “stranded assets”: abruptly shifting from high to low value sometime before 2035 . . . However, major carbon exporters with relatively high production costs, such as Canada, the United States and Russia, would see domestic fossil fuel industries collapse. 

Though this abstract doesn't state when peak demand will come, it would seem that they are looking to 2035 for oil to shift from a high to a low value resource. This sounds very similar to BP's paradigm shift.

Cambridge argues that Canada, US and Russia could see a collapse of their industries due to their high cost product of oil, again an alignment with BP's paradigm shift.

The Cambridge article does make the argument that Europe, China and Japan could be economic winners as they import fossil fuels and therefore wouldn't be impacted by investments that go bad. This, of course, has to assume that over the course of the next 15 - 20 years, that corporations like Exxon Mobil, Chevron and other oil majors can't forecast out and make changes to their business models: both in terms of investments in oil and just their business models in general. Considering that the Cambridge study is largely saying the same things as previous BP studies, it is obvious that the oil majors are thinking about the future.