Now what does IEA (International Energy Agency) think?
First: they see demand increasing by 1.3 mb/d in 2018.
Second: . . . when our US outlook is added to expectations for the other producers, output from non-OPEC countries could rise by 1.6 mb/d in 2018, an increase of 0.2 mb/d to our forecast in last month’s Report.
OPEC is keeping production flat to 2017. IEA sees demand increasing by 1.3 mb/d. IEA also sees non-OPEC production increasing by 1.6 mb/d. Yep, there looks to be another glut of oil hitting in 2018.
Though maybe Goldman Sachs and IEA aren't that far off. Part 1 indicates that Goldman Sachs sees oil prices remaining relatively flat (with the assumption that the Forties pipeline problem is causing Brent crude prices to be higher than they should be at this moment).
IEA's conclusion is: Total supply growth could exceed demand growth: indeed, in the first half the surplus could be 200 kb/d before reverting to a deficit of about 200 kb/d in the second half, leaving 2018 as a whole showing a closely balanced market.
Maybe the two are actually in agreement with discrepancies on how oil prices fluctuate throughout the year. In the articles I read about Goldman Sachs' forecast, I didn't see any indication about price swings across the year. IEA conclusion is that there will be a glut at the start of the year and then a rebalance towards the end of the year. Also, Goldman Sachs' forecast is more focused on investing. Since they believe oil prices will be relatively flat in 2018 to current prices, they probably see this as being good enough for Big Oil to churn out big profits. Meanwhile, IEA isn't bullish on prices continuing to increase. So yeah, maybe they're on the same page, one just sees flat prices year-over-year as more positive than the other.
Informational
Now Morgan Stanley argues that for the US to fully off-set OPEC production cuts, oil rigs need to increase by 8 to 10 a month.
I have the following:
Oct 17: -13
Nov 17: +10
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