There's some interesting intrigue going on in Iraq that includes the two Kurdish political parties and Iran. Turkey plays a role in all of this, as well.
First, Iraq wants production of one million barrels per day (bpd) from oilfields in Kirkuk.
On Nov. 2, the oil ministry requested that the Kurdish authorities allow Baghdad to use their pipeline to export Kirkuk crude but received no response, Asim Jihad told Reuters.
There are two major Kurdish political parties that appear to be vying for power: Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). Former President Massoud Barzani (he resigned after losing Kirkuk to the Iraqi forces) is KDP. The PUK apparently allowed the Iraqis and Iran-backed militia to enter Kirkuk.
Based on that, I have to believe that the above quote relates to the KDP. The KDP still controls certain pipelines and refuses to allow the Iraqis to use them. Perhaps there was a bet that Iraq couldn't do much with the oil without eventual cooperation from the KDP. Also, per the article, the Kurdish engineers took "necessary material" when they left. So Iraq may want to produce one million bpd, but they can't just do it as items were removed from the oil fields. Yes, there was a retreat, but there is still leverage being held by the Kurds or is there?
There is the PUK party. Here's an interesting quote (I highly recommend reading the full article):
The PUK wanted to export oil from Kirkuk to Iran. “We tried to make Barzani accept joint management between Erbil [KDP city] and Sulaimaniya [PUK city] over the fields but he strongly opposed it,” said Sherzad Yaba, a political adviser close to the PUK.
Is the PUK helping Iraq make a end run on the KDP? Are the Kurds being divided over oil money?
A question mark: I previously wrote that the Kurdish Peshmerga fighters didn't put up much of a fight when Iraq came for Kirkuk. I wondered why they retreated so quickly. I also wondered about the loyalty of the Peshmerga fighters. Did the Peshmerga make a deal with the PUK, which revolves around oil money?
The article has some really interesting information:
1. Iran was heavily involved via the Quds force (part of the Revolutionary Guard). The general in charge of that force is General Qassem Soleimani.
2. Soleimani warned the Kurds not to vote for independence, even making a personal visit. This vote happened in September and was pushed by former Kurdish president Barzani.
3. Soleimani then helped the Iraqis take over Kirkuk -- though the PUK did let them in without a fight.
4. Quote from article: Iraq and the PUK resumed talks with Iran, according to Iraqi and Kurdish officials. Did Barzani resign not only because he lost Kirkuk, but because he over-played his hand by refusing to work with Sulaimaniya (PUK) -- and now the PUK is working directly with Iraq and Iran?
5. PUK and Iraq want to ship oil through Iran.
6. Discussions are happening between Iraq and Iran oil ministries; however, the article states that the Quds need to sign off on it.
7. This pipeline through Iran will reward the PUK for their help.
So if this deal eventually goes through between the PUK, Iraq and Iran it sounds like the PUK gets a share of the profits (and probably won't share it with the KDP). Maybe the Peshmerga get a share of the pie, as well, if my collusion thought is correct. It sounds like General Soleimani will get a slice. Iran and Iraq will get some of it, as well.
And the US and Saudi Arabia are probably not too thrilled. Nor the KDP.
My post header mentioned Turkey. Oil from Kirkuk used to flow through Turkey prior to ISIS. There are now discussions going on between Iraq and Turkey officials (as of November 16th).
Thoughts:
1. Is Iraq and the PUK just playing nice with Turkey? Will they transport some oil through Turkey, but give the majority to Iran/General Soleimani. To me, Iran helped Iraq deal with the Kirkuk and not Turkey.
2. Perhaps Iraq and the PUK are attempting to get the best deal possible and are playing Turkey against Iran to increase profitability. Iran seems to be deeply embedded in Iraq, which brings that thought into question.
3. I don't know the lay of the land, but is working with Turkey a way to make nice with the KDP by letting them get a slice of the oil profits?
Other news on Iraq:
There are concerns that the Western world will stop providing humanitarian aid to the Iraqis as ISIS is mostly gone from Iraq. Per the article:
More than 3 million people displaced by Islamic State-related violence in the last three years have still not returned home.
With that many people still displaced, who knows what sort of ferment could result from that.
The Kurds still control some border areas that the Iraqis demand need to be turned over. I half suspect that these borders are controlled by the KDP and not the PUK. Iraq is threatening military action to gain control of these border crossings.
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