Future of Oil

I started a twitter account based on the fact that someone dissed me by using the term "Equivalency Axis." I figured I'd start a blog based on that term, as well.

One of the issues that has fascinated me recently is oil. A few years back, there was concern about peak oil supply. Now, the more I read various articles, it looks like we're heading towards peak demand. This is driven by the assumption that the internal combustion engine will at some point disappear or at least be a smaller percentage of total transportation.



If we are to hit peak demand, I think there are some interesting topics to consider.

1. When will we hit peak demand? I've read anywhere from early 2020s to as far off as the 2040s.

2. How will countries who are highly dependent on oil learn to live with less revenues from oil? I believe everyone would agree that Venezuela is a basket case. How much more of a basket case will it become if oil demand peaks within a few years? And some countries may be taking action already to prepare for lower oil revenues. Saudi Arabia is looking to IPO Aramco. Norway shifted their sovereign wealth fund to a higher stock ratio.

3. If peak demand oil is in 2040 vs 2020, will we run into one more (or many) price spikes in the future?

4. How will oil companies deal with peak demand?

There are probably many many more topics to consider.

Hopefully, I'll have time to spend time blogging on oil along with other topics that I find of interest.