Thursday, March 10, 2022

Movie Review: Room at the Top

Room at the Top is about a young man named Joe Lampton (Laurence Harvey). He is a World War II UK veteran who spent much of the war in a prison camp. The movie opens with him arriving at his new job in Warnley (I believe this is a fictional city in the UK). He is working at the Treasurer's Department for the city. Moving to Warnley is an upgrade for the young man as he previously grew up in the city of Dufton, which is a factory town while Warnley is a more vibrant city. He is an attractive young man and all the women in the office look at him with keen interest. They may have an interest in him, but he has no interest in them. Instead, his eyes turn to Susan Brown (Heather Sears). Why? Because her father is one of the wealthiest men in the city. She is involved in the theater and so he joins that theater group in order to gain her attention. The problem is that she is dating someone named Jack Wales (John Westbrook). Jack Wales is of the same social class as the Brown family and if the two marry there will be a combination of these two wealthy families. 

As Joe begins to gain Susan's attention, the Brown family goes about trying to figure out a subtle way to break up the potential couple. First, what appears to be a random job opportunity pops up for Joe, which would provide him opportunity for a solid career in accounting. The job so happens to be back in his hometown of Dufton. He learns by accident that the Brown family set him up for the job and so he turns it down. As that move failed, the Brown family sends Susan off to France. 

Thursday, March 3, 2022

Movie Review: How Green Was My Valley

How Green Was My Valley is a 1941 movie that was nominated for 10 Oscars and won 5 of them. One of those victories was for Best Picture where it beat out such movies as Citizen Kane, The Maltese Falcon, Sergeant York, and Suspicion. The film is about the Morgan family who work the coal mines in Wales. The story is occasionally narrated by the youngest son Huw (Roddy McDowall) -- perhaps a decade or two after the events of the movie. The movie starts off with a positive tone. The father and working age brothers are all employed at the mines. Wages are collected by the mother for the betterment of the family as a whole. And the eldest son, Ivor (Patric Knowles) gets married to Bronwyn (Anna Lee). At the same time, there appears to be the start of a romance between the sister, Angharad (Maureen O'Hara), and the new preacher, Mr. Gruffydd (Walter Pidgeon). 

That happiness doesn't last long. The mine owner cuts the wages due to what sounds like a recession. The workers go on strike. The father, Gwilym Morgan (Donald Crisp), opposes the strike and is ostracized by the community. The mother, Beth (Sara Allgood), and Huw fall into a frozen stream and suffer significant health consequences due to the exposure to the freezing temperatures. Angharad is courted by the mine owner's son and they marry -- even though she is still in love with the preacher. Ivor dies in a coal mining accident. Two of the other sons eventually get laid off from the mine and move to America. And as the movie ends, the father also dies in the mines.

Thursday, February 24, 2022

Coronavirus: Long Covid Less Common Than Feared?

The Epoch Times (Sep 17) reports on a long-COVID study from the UK:

The prevalence of so-called “long-COVID” in the UK is less common than previously estimated, official data suggests.

According to an update published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday, only 3 percent of people who tested positive for the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus had symptoms lasting more than 12 weeks, “substantially lower” than the ONS’ previous estimation published in April (13.7 percent).

. . . The 12 symptoms that ONS asked about were fever, headache, muscle ache, weakness/tiredness, nausea/vomiting, abdominal pain, diarrhea, sore throat, cough, shortness of breath, loss of taste, and loss of smell.


This is perhaps one of the few positive reports I've read regarding long Covid problems. Yet, is it all good news? Those 12 symptoms seem to exclude lung damage, kidney and heart damage, and brain fog.  

Forbes (Sep 17) mentions that even at this lower number, it means that 1.23 million Americans could be dealing with long-COVID.




Thursday, February 17, 2022

Movie Review: Journey to Italy

Journey to Italy stars Ingrid Bergman and George Sanders as a couple (Katherine Joyce and Alex Joyce) on their way to Italy to dispose of a property that was inherited after the death of an uncle. I believe the uncle was Katherine's. The movie starts off with the couple just 100 kilometers from Naples. Katherine is driving while Alex is taking a nap. They're driving in a rather fancy looking car and their cloths look high class (especially Katherine's). When Alex wakes up, he talks about his disappointment in not dealing with a business decision in a better way. Based on this, the immediate impression is that this is a wealthy couple. 

During the drive, they mention the names of two individuals. Initially, I thought it might be their children as they look like a couple who are in their late 30s to 40s, but I later learned that the two individuals mentioned are close friends. Also, they seem rather direct and formal with each other, but considering that they're British it just feels that this might be normal.

They randomly run into some friends at a stop and this is where relational troubles start to arise. While at dinner, the couple are separated at the table and Alex spends time flirting with a female friend. Katherine is very unhappy about this situation. In revenge, she later brings up the fact that while she was dating Alex, a poet friend had tried to pursue her. In fact, she tells Alex, the poet showed up outside her window just before she was to be married. This ploy of hers to make Alex jealous backfires and actually creates a rift between the two. 

As stated in the movie, the two of them had seldom spent time alone as a married couple. Instead, spending time with the two individuals mentioned earlier in the movie. After only a few days alone, they just find they can't get along with each other. In some ways, it is a wonder that they got married in the first place as their personal interests have no real intersection. Katherine finds excitement in visiting museums and historical sites. Alex finds excitement at bars and interactions with people. The wedge between them sends him looking into the possibility of having an affair.

As the wedge between them seems more like two roads diverging, Alex proposes that they just get a divorce. And yet, as the movie comes to a conclusion, Katherine finds herself separated from Alex during a religious town ceremony. She doesn't appear to be in any real danger so it seems more like she finds herself just not wanting to be separated from Alex. She calls out to him and he goes towards her. It is there that they realize that they do truly love each other.

The movie takes a glimpse into the life of a couple over a short period of time. One can see how this movie may have influenced Audrey Hepburn's "Two for the Road." That movie also deals with a well to do couple who are having relationship troubles that arise while they are on a trip. Is there potentially a hint that vacations cause family problems to arise? Actually, that can probably be seen in plenty of movies and in personal lives in general. Perhaps it even had an influence on a 1990s art movie called "Enchanted April."

I did enjoy the low key style of the movie and how it explored how a moment in time caused a relationship to rapidly fall apart. Yet, I question the happy ending of the movie. Was this a couple who really were in love? They just seem to have such diverse interests. Of course, maybe those interests only came to the surface due to the fact that they had plenty of free time. Perhaps one of the subtle points of the movie is that relationships aren't just built based on the two couples, but by the community and general time consuming moments that surrounds them -- be it the two friends that were missing or the work that occupied Alex's time.

The movie was initially released as "Viaggio in Italia," which explains the movie poster.

Thursday, February 10, 2022

Corporations Continue to Leave California

I like to keep an eye on corporations that are leaving California. 

San Francisco Gate (Aug 31) took a look at this subject a few months back:

If the pace keeps up, the number will double what it was last year, according to the report from Stanford's Hoover Institution, a conservative think tank. So far, its data shows that 74 companies have already moved their headquarters to other states in 2021, surpassing the half-year average for 2019 and 2018. It's also more than the number of companies that moved away in all of 2020.

Thursday, February 3, 2022

Social Security Running Out of Funds Due to Covid-19?

Washington Post (Aug 31) has the following about Social Security:

The federal government expects U.S. mortality rates to be elevated by 15% over pre-pandemic norms in 2021 and not return to normal levels until 2023, according to a report released Tuesday by the Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare programs.

The trustees concluded that these elevated mortality rates, along with lower immigration and depressed fertility rates, have had a significant effect on the trust funds supporting both programs in the short term. But the virus' long-term effects on America's retirement and healthcare systems remain unclear, as the pandemic still appears far from over.

Thursday, January 27, 2022

Movie Review: The Razor's Edge (1946)

The Razor's Edge has a philosophical look at life. The movie opens up shortly after World War I has ended. America is filled with excitement. There is an understanding that we will become the greatest nation in the world. And, of course, since this movie was made in 1946, the outcome was already known to the audience watching this film. Larry Darrell (Tyrone Power) is a World War I veteran and is engaged to marry Isabel Bradley (Gene Tierney). Isabel's uncle, Elliott Templeton (Clifton Webb), is concerned about the future marriage, because Larry doesn't appear to have any motivation to take part in helping the United States fulfill it's destiny. Instead he wishes to "loaf" around for a period of time on his inheritance of $3,000 a year. Now $3,000 in today's terms is close to $47,000. I suppose depending on where one lives in the United States now this would be considered lower middle class or higher end poverty. We learn that this is also a concern of Isabel's. Larry and Isabel decide to postpone the marriage for a year, which will allow Larry to spend a year in Paris. 

There are some interesting dynamics here. Larry's life was saved by a friend. The friend sacrificed his life for Larry's during the war. This causes Larry to want to examine the meaning of one's life versus striving to make America a dominant country. He is willing to live a simplified life, perhaps eventually taking a low paid job to help better support his family. This clashes with Isabel and Elliot who are wealthy and can't imagine not living with such wealth. Another interesting point is that even though Isabel and Elliot are snobbish about money, it doesn't necessarily prevent them from associated with other classes of society. Somehow Larry and Isabel did meet and fall in love. Isabel also is friends with the Sophie and Bob MacDonald (Anne Baxter and Frank Latimore) who appear to have a middle class lifestyle. 

Thursday, January 20, 2022

Homeless in California: Looking to Buy Motels

This LA Times (Aug 5, 2021) article is focused on Gov. Gavin Newsom seemingly playing politics in order to hold off the recall election so is therefore dated, but there was some interesting data points in the article:

The latest state budget commits $12 billion over the next two years to not just more motel purchases and funding for mental health care facilities but also encampment cleanups and hazardous waste removal.

. . . The state assisted local governments in purchasing hotel rooms and apartments for 6,000 people at a cost of nearly $750 million — the largest expansion of shelter and housing for homeless people in the the state’s history.

Thursday, January 13, 2022

Bribes for Grades

Sometimes you just need money. The New York Times (Aug 5) has this story:

One math lesson Prof. Edward C. Ennels taught at Baltimore City Community College was, according to prosecutors, pretty simple: $150 for a C; $250 for a B; and $500 for an A.

. . . Over the course of seven months last year, Mr. Ennels, 45, solicited bribes from 112 students, and received 10 payments from nine students, totaling $2,815, the Maryland attorney general, Brian E. Frosh, said in a statement on Thursday.

In another scheme, Mr. Ennels sold online access codes that enabled students to view instructional material and complete assignments, prosecutors said. From 2013 to 2020, he sold 694 access codes for about $90 each.


They didn't add up the selling of access codes. It comes to $62,460. So he was doing this for 8 years. I'm deducing that it was the selling of grades that tripped him up and not the selling of access codes. Maybe students just thought this was an additional fee such as buying books? 

The excuse? He had a gambling addiction and in fact didn't live a "lavish lifestyle." I'm not sure that one could live a lavish lifestyle on $65,000 over 8 years.


Thursday, January 6, 2022

Coronavirus: Dementia and Alzheimer's

I recently wrote a COVID-19 blog post about a study affiliated with the University of Oxford that mentioned that "the loss of grey matter in memory-related regions of the brain may in turn increase the risk of these patients of developing dementia in the longer term." USA Today (Jul29) has an article that looks into this, as well. Though the title of the article mentions dementia, the content is more focused on Alzheimer's.

Researchers are concerned about the possibility that lingering brain symptoms might lead to dementia years or decades later.

. . . Dr. George Vavougios, the lead author of one of the new studies, said he's concerned about the frequency of these brain problems. About half of participants in his study and others are showing cognitive problems after infection, regardless of their age.

Thursday, December 30, 2021

Coronavirus: Drop in US Life Expectancy

One knew that a story about a decline in US life expectancy due to COVID-19 would eventually come out. NPR (Jul 21) reports:

Life expectancy in the United States declined by a year and a half in 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which says the coronavirus is largely to blame.

COVID-19 contributed to 74% of the decline in life expectancy from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.3 years in 2020, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics.

Since a significant percentage of deaths also occurred in 2021, one would have to assume that there won't be a jump back up to 78.8 years in 2021.

Thursday, December 23, 2021

Movie Review: To Live and Die in L.A.

To Live and Die in L.A. primarily occurs over a 42 day time period in Los Angeles. The movie starts off with the United States Secret Service protecting the president in Los Angeles. One of those agents, Richard Chance, notices a suspicious individual in a hotel. He chases after him and eventually tracks him down to the rooftop of the hotel. The individual is a suicide bomber, explosives wrapped around his chest. Also, climbing up to the rooftop from the floor below is Richard Chance's boss, Jimmy Hart. Jimmy Hart grabs the terrorist from behind and throws him off the roof. 

After that scene, we're introduced to Rick Masters who is a counterfeiter. He is in a warehouse, printing up fake $20 bills. We're introduced to a rather complex process and see how the bills are created from start to finish: from the drawing up of the bills to tossing the bills into a dryer to create a look of used bills.

We learn that Jimmy is just three days away from retirement, but has one last job to do. Another role of the Secret Service is to track down counterfeiting operations. He heads to the desert to track down Rick Masters. Somehow the Secret Service has figured out where the warehouse is. When he gets to the warehouse, he is shot dead. 

A few days later, Richard and team head to the warehouse and find Jimmy's body, dumped into a garbage container. All the equipment has already been moved out except for the dryer (which honestly seems odd). Richard than takes over as lead investigator to track down Rick Masters. He is given a new partner named John Vukovich.  

Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Coronavirus: Getting Better at Airborne Transmission?

Is the coronavirus getting better at airborne transmission? I'm not sure the New York Times via Yahoo (Oct 2) came across anything new here:

Newer variants of the coronavirus such as alpha and delta are highly contagious, infecting far more people than the original virus. Two new studies offer a possible explanation: The virus is evolving to spread more efficiently through air.

I don't know, how else would the new variants spread so rapidly? I think we've already ruled out the fact that the virus spreads efficiently via surfaces. What the article does indicate is that people should be shifting to N95 masks. Of course, the article doesn't state that explicitly, but what exactly is considered more protective than a surgical mask?

Even loose-fitting cloth and surgical masks block about half of the fine aerosols containing virus, according to the study of people infected with variants, published this month in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.

Still, at least in some crowded spaces, people may want to consider switching to more protective masks, said Don Milton, an aerosol expert at the University of Maryland who led the research.


Thursday, December 16, 2021

Coronavirus: Long Term Symptoms Equal Future Disability Expenses?

The long term symptoms related to COVID-19 have been well researched: ranging from brain fog to lung problems. Could we face a future where these long term symptoms result in much higher health expenses in the future?

Scientific American (July 6) addresses a concern that millions of Americans could face permanent disability:

In addition to the personal suffering, long-term disability comes with a staggering price tag—including increased health care costs; reduction or loss of employment; and economic strain on worker’s compensation and disability support programs. It’s been estimated that as much as 30 percent of the COVID health burden could arise from COVID-induced disability. As physician and University of Massachusetts medical professor Steven Martin recently told NPR, “If we end up with a million people with ongoing symptoms that are debilitating, that is a tremendous burden for each of these individuals, but also for our health care system and our society.”

The article states that we need to consider the following:

1. We must research disability due to long COVID.

2. We need clinics to deal with those suffering from long COVID.

3. We need to look into worker's compensation programs.

4. Federal disability programs.

In terms of worker's compensation, here in California we have SDI (State Disability Insurance). The 2021 SDI rate is 1.2% up to a wage of $128,298. Per Wikipedia, since 2002, the SDI rate has increased from 0.9% to 1.2% while eligible wages have increased from $46,327 to $128,298. As one can see, it just goes up and up and up -- both on a tax and income level. Both those numbers are likely to continue to increase if long COVID-19 becomes a serious problem for the state. (As a side note, I use 2002, because Wikipedia mentions that this is when the Paid Family Leave program was put in place to cover individuals who take time off work to care for seriously ill family members or to bond with a child. Considering how much both the tax rate and eligible wages have increased, it does make one think that there is some abuse going on here.)

Also, if the worst case scenario plays out, might an investor want to invest in retirement / nursing care REITS (I do own some investments -- to be transparent)?  

Thursday, December 2, 2021

Oil: Crisis Coming in 2022?

OilPrice (Jun 17) looked at the lack of investment and how that might impact future oil supply. This lack of investment has been in dramatic decline since 2014. The OilPrice article looked specifically at shale and how even if there is a rush to investment more in shale, it might take time for oil production to come back to previous levels:

Thanks to capital restraint, billions of dollars of equipment have been written down and scrapped. Employees have found new careers, and are reluctant to return given the turmoil in the industry. But, even if we could scramble that much hardware and talent to meet the moment, it wouldn't matter.

How lacking is oil investments?

In fact, an article carried in the Wall Street Journal noted that “Planned investment in oil supply globally falls about $600 billion short of what will be needed to meet projected demand by 2030, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Christyan Malek. 

API (Feb 24) looks into how we could have a crisis as soon as 2022.

First: global oil production in existing fields decline between 4% - 7% based on level of investments in those fields.