Coronavirus: Spreading in Africa?

There have been warnings about the spread of COVID-19 in Africa since the start of this global pandemic. I wrote about it back in October and how the worst fears had yet to occurred. In that post, I wrote about concerns that COVID-19 cases could reach 10 million by October. As we can see in Worldometer, reported cases aren't even at 3 million yet. During much of the pandemic, it also looked like cases were largely isolated to the country of South Africa and various North African countries. Is COVID-19 now spreading throughout Africa?

Let's start by visiting Sorth Africa. The New York Times (Dec 26) reported about the country:

In South Africa, a crush of new cases that spread from Port Elizabeth is growing exponentially across the nation, with deaths mounting . . . Now, as they battle new outbreaks, doctors are convinced that deaths have also gone uncounted. Dr. John Black, the only infectious-disease specialist for adults in Port Elizabeth, said he and other physicians feared that many people were dying at home. Indeed, a government analysis showed that there had been more than twice as many excess deaths as could be explained by confirmed cases in South Africa. “We don’t know what the real number is,” he said.

This is why I've mentioned every so often that we won't know the true number of COVID-19 related deaths until forensic researches get involved. 

The article mentions that a reason why the spread did not reach the expectation of experts is because the continent shut down their economies. This had negative impacts as shown by Somalia.

. . . Closed borders and canceled domestic flights impeded the flow of lifesaving equipment and outside experts. Soon, about 150 health facilities in far-flung rural areas ran out of medical supplies, and international agencies had to charter flights to keep them stocked.

As many of Africa's countries are poor, they can't remain economically shut down for well over a year. Perhaps this need to open up their economies will cause the virus to spread, especially since they may not get a large quantity of vaccines until Asia, Europe and North America, perhaps South America, as well.

As we're reading, new strains of the virus are being discovered. One has been discovered in Nigeria. Al Jazeeera (Dec 24) reports:

Another new variant of the new coronavirus seems to have emerged in Nigeria, the head of Africa’s disease control body has said, cautioning more investigation was needed . . . “It’s a separate lineage from the UK and South Africa,” John Nkengasong, the head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), told reporters on Thursday.

. . . The news came as cases surge in Nigeria and South Africa. In the past week, Nigeria reported a 52 percent increase in cases and South Africa a 40 percent increase, Nkengasong said.

Is this an indication that the virus will start to spread rapidly in Nigeria? Or is it already spreading rapidly. If you don't test, you won't find cases. In Nigeria,  just under 1 million tests. Brazil, which has a similar population, is closing in on 29 million tests. In situations like this, I like to look at news about health workers. 

Anadolu Agency(Dec 26) reports:

At least 20 Nigerian doctors last week were killed after being infected by the coronavirus, media reports said Friday.

”For those of us in the health sector, we have lost quite a number of colleagues. Across the country, we have lost not less than 20 doctors in the last one week,” the Premium Times website quoted the chairman of the Nigeria Medical Association (NMA) FCT chapter, Enema Amodu, at a news conference.

. . . More than 1,000 health workers have reportedly tested positive for COVID-19. 

What are the chances that over 10% of COVID-19 cases are related to health workers? Probably not.