I don't usually think about CNN when I write these blog posts, but I found a really good article up on the site:
On the streets of Caracas, tension is palpable. The government has put the military in charge of enforcing the national shutdown. Soldiers can be seen setting up armed checkpoints and taking over petrol stations to ration fuel.
In public hospitals, where resources are already thin, the feeling is that of calm before the storm. "The expectation for Venezuela is truly a terrifying scenario," says physician Dr. Christian Ramos, of health insurance provider Universitas.
"If that is what is happening to Italy, with all the resources they have, imagine what could happen here," he says.
The article mentions that there are 107 cases. Worldometers on Saturday (3/28) had their case count at 119 with 2 deaths. Either way, just by reading this quote one can see that they are taking steps that haven't been taken yet in the U.S. -- armed checkpoints.
US News has this about how easily Venezuela could get over-run by this virus:
Carrie Filipetti, the deputy assistant secretary for Cuba and Venezuela at the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, said the country is lacking in water, soap and electricity. In a country with an official population around 30 million, there are only 84 ICU hospital beds in the entire country, and 90% of hospitals don't have protocols for respiratory virus care, she added.
You can see that the CFR % in Venezuela could be much higher than other countries should there be a major outbreak. In The Atlantic, they estimate that 2 million people have the virus in Iran. Iran has a population of around 80 million. This results in 2.5% of the population being infected. If a similar outbreak happened in Venezuela, that would equal about 750,000 getting infected. As people are talking about a CFR % of 1% for COVID-19, that would equal 7,500 deaths in Venezuela. Having 84 ICU hospital beds is no match for that. I think that is another indication on why Venezuela is already attempting to lock down the country.
Of interest, there is an estimate that 5 million people have left Venezuela in recent years.
Venezuela Analysis looks at some economic policies being implemented:
Public- and private- sector workers will receive a special government bonus, and wages of small and midsize companies will be paid by the state until September. A pre-existing workplace stability decree has also been extended until the end of the year, outlawing job dismissals as a result of the quarantine.
Loan appeals by small and medium businesses are to be fast-tracked, and a special agricultural investment plan will look to guarantee the contents of the subsidised Local Food Production and Provision Committees (CLAP) food boxes for a reported seven million families. Telecommunications companies have also been barred from cutting off customers for six months.
I think it is obvious how President Maduro would deal with those who speak out against him.
Reuters writes about how those who discuss how ill prepared Venezuela is to face this potential crisis are being arrested:
The threat against [Melquiades Avila, an indigenous leader and journalist in the remote Venezuelan state of Delta Amacuro], who is now in hiding but spoke with Reuters by telephone, is one of at least seven recent episodes in which Venezuelan authorities have sought to arrest critics of the government’s preparedness for the coronavirus, according to interviews with three accused individuals and lawyers of four others.
This is similar to how China and Iran reacted to rumors of the virus hitting their shores. The one difference in response, I suppose, is that Venezuela is pushing social distancing far sooner than China did (honestly, I'm not sure Iran is pursuing this idea aggressively).
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