Coronavirus: Iran

For the longest time, Iran reported that no one had the virus in their country. Then Wednesday morning (2/19) in the United States (late evening in Iran), articles started to pop up that Iran had 2 cases of coronavirus. Maybe a couple hours later, it was reported that these two individuals had died.

ABC News had this quick summary of events:

Iranian authorities said that two patients diagnosed with novel coronavirus in the country are now dead, Fars News Agency, the nation's state-run news organization, reported Wednesday. Earlier on Wednesday, health officials said two cases of the virus, known officially as COVID-19, had been detected in the central province of Qom. 

The article is short, but there are also some thoughts regarding the Tokyo Olympics should one want read it.

And just a random thought: I'm not sure any other country has announced that there were cases of the coronavirus and then a couple hours later the individuals were stated to have died. One has to wonder how long the individuals were sick before finally coming to see the doctor. Honestly, to have died so quickly, I'd bet they went to the hospital over the weekend and were probably infectious a week or so prior to that. That's just me speculating. None of the articles I've read provide any details on this part of the story.



I am writing this on Sunday (2/22). Covid19Info.Live has the number of cases at 28. Do I believe that? No. Why? Well, there are 3 individuals that travelled from Iran to Canada (British Columbia), Lebanon, and UAE who likely came down with the virus in Iran.

CBC in Canada reported Thursday afternoon (2/20) that an individual was diagnoses with the virus:

The latest patient is a woman in her 30s who lives in the Fraser Health region, according to provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry. She had recently returned from a trip to Iran and is now recovering at home. Henry said officials were surprised when they learned the woman had only visited Iran, and not China or neighbouring countries that have seen the bulk of COVID-19 cases.

The article mentions that she had returned from Iran the previous week. So we're talking between February 9th through February 15th. The article does not mention what parts of Iran she visited. I went through a couple other articles and no additional details were provided. One has to believe that she spent a couple weeks in Iran visiting friends and family.

Note: it is always possible she picked it up while in transit from Iran. I'm sure there are no direct flights between Canada and Iran so maybe she picked it up on another flight or at another airport.

Then Voice of America mentioned on Friday (2/21) about a case from Lebanon:

Lebanon confirmed its first coronavirus case Friday, a 45-year-old woman who had arrived from Iran and was being quarantined in a hospital. "We confirmed the first case today," Lebanese health minister Hassan Hamad told a news conference, adding that two other suspected cases are being investigated. The woman arrived Thursday on a flight from the city of Qom in Iran. The woman and two other suspected victims were quarantined at the Rafik Hariri government hospital in Beirut. 

So let's just be clear, Lebanon may actually have 3 cases of the virus that are directly related to Qom.

Arab News reported on Saturday that the united Arab Emirates reported 2 cases that were from Iran:

The United Arab Emirates Ministry of Health announced that an Iranian visitor and his wife were diagnosed with coronavirus, state news agency WAM reported on Saturday.

The article doesn't state specifically what city the couple is from.

(Since writing most of this on Sunday, more cases popped up across the Middle East that are directly tied to Iran. For example, the  National Report mentions two cases in Oman that are tied to women returning from Iran. And France24 talks about cases in Kuwait and Bahrain.)

This is speculation, but there has to be 10,000 plus cases of the virus in Iran. Both the Canada and Lebanon cases were diagnosed with the virus when there were only a handful of cases reported in Iran. I think 10 at most. What are the chances that in a country of 81 million, these two individuals interacted with those 10 people? Very unlikely. The UAE cases came about when the number of announced cases was at 28. If all did spent time in Qom, I would probably lower my estimate to 1,000.

I'm just doing some high level thinking based on how the virus was popping up in the United States based on people coming back from China trips.

If there are really way more cases in Iran, did Iran know it had an issue?


Well, there were plenty of rumors surfacing. Let's go through them.

The New York Post reported on February 12th:

An Iranian woman has died of a suspected coronavirus infection, local media reported. The 61-year-old woman, who wasn’t identified, died Monday in a Tehran hospital, according to Reuters, which cited a report from the state daily newspaper IRAN.

Iran's Health Ministry denied this at the time.

Tehran Times reported February 3rd:

Arash Najimi, a spokesman with Isfahan University of Medical Science, said that a 29-year-old person with symptoms of coronavirus, including fever, cough, and shortness of breath, is now hospitalized and is under intensive care.

"This person works at Isfahan airport and has been in contact with Chinese tourists,” Najimi said. The person has undergone different tests and results will be announced within the next 48 hours, he added.

Iran HRM on February 8th reported on the topic:

On Sunday, a spokesperson for the Isfahan University said, “A 29-year-old individual with coronavirus symptoms referred to the Farabi hospital in Isfahan and is under special care.”

But the same person was released from the hospital a few hours later without any clarification or explanations on the reason.

The article also has the following:

A resident of Sanandaj was arrested by security forces for posting a video clip on the hospitalization of someone who had contracted the Corona virus.

Some reports indicate that coronavirus infection cases have been spotted in Isfahan and Tabriz.

Radio Farda on February 6th had the following:

Iran's Cyber Police officials on Thursday said two individuals who spread false news about coronavirus outbreak in Kurdestan and Hormozgan provinces have been arrested. 

Using Google maps and Google in general, the Iran HRM report of an arrest in Sanandaj is likely the same arrest that Radio Farda mentions that occurred in Kurdestan province.

Iran HRM also mentions potential cases in Isfahan and Tabriz. It doesn't look like either city is in the provinces of Kurdestan and Hormozgan that are mentioned in Radio Farda. Iran HRM doesn't really go into much detail about the accuracy of the reports regarding Isfahan and Tabriz.

So I suspect some of those rumors were true. Why would the Iran government wait so long to report the fact that they had an issue? I suspect it might have had something to do with the fact that they had elections on Friday, February 21st. Iran needed the population to come out and vote. Of course, one has to ask: why wouldn't they wait until after the elections to make the announcement? Maybe it had something to do with the Canada case. It is a potential that Canada had communicated with Iran earlier, saying that they were testing an individual who had travelled to Iran. The Jerusalem Post, which I'd have to assume is somewhat bias against Iran, seems to imply that Iran was open with the international community, but kept this quiet in regards to their citizens until Saturday.

Anyways, if there are in fact way more cases than the current 28 (reminder, this is being written on Sunday), I'm pretty sure that having people standing in line to vote will only result in an explosion of cases over the next couple weeks.