Thursday, September 19, 2019

Libya: Why is Turkey interested in Libya, living in fear in Benghazi

Before going into Turkey and Benghazi, what does Reuters have to say about the battle for Tripoli:

“Three fighters allied to GNA from Misrata were killed in the offensive in Tripoli this morning,” the witness from the coastal city, some 200 km (124 miles) east of Tripoli, told Reuters. 

Neither side claimed significant advances.

Basically, no movement has occurred between the GNA and the LNA.



Gulf News has an opinion article that highlights some reasons why Turkey is getting itself involved in Libya:

Dismantling the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya would be particularly painful for Erdogan, who only just lost a strategic ally in Khartoum.

If Haftar succeeds in taking Tripoli, Erdogan’s ambitions in the Arab World would be coming to an end, as government troops regain control of most of Syria, and Brotherhood-affiliates are rounded up in Yemen.

A Haftar victory would end Erdogan’s ideological schemes for Libya and terminate the steady arms flow that his proxies have been sending to Sinai. For years, these weapons have made their way into Egypt and reached the hands of the Daesh-affiliated Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, where they were used to launch attacks against the Egyptian police and armed forces.

In Tripoli itself, Turkey will likely be excluded from all future business contracts with a Haftar-led government and its $23 billion debt to Libya will probably get scrapped. So would the $18 billion worth of contracts, mostly in construction, currently signed with Fayez Al Sarraj. The Turkish leader believes that General Haftar, like Colonel Muammar Gaddafi before him, supports Kurdish national aspirations in Turkey.

The opinion article believes that Turkey was hoping to create a sphere of influence from Syria to Sudan to Libya to Yemen. There is even the implied argument that Turkey is aligned with ISIS. Then there is the Kurdish question and ultimately money.Some of these same countries (Syria and Yemen) are under the sphere of Iran.

Spiegel has an article up about Haftar's control in Benghazi. The article is a great read, but there are two interesting quotes for me:

Haftar has established a surveillance state in Benghazi. Unaccompanied journalists can hardly make it more than 200 meters before being stopped. They are rarely allowed into the city at all. Plain-clothes security personnel carry out checks everywhere. In the hotel, men sit and observe the guests. Almost nobody dares to speak to journalists.

To me, the above quote just indicates a degree of fear by Haftar. He's stalled out in Tripoli. There are occasional articles on Reuters about troubles that he has to address in southern Libya. He just doesn't want to deal with potential issues in Benghazi.

The below quote addresses the distrust between east and west, which Haftar no doubt is able to use to his advantage. Of course, should he ever win his battle for Tripoli, what does that mean for any long term stability in the country?

The divisions caused by the civil war are deep in Libya. And nowhere is that as visible as it is in Benghazi. For many in the west, especially in the militia hotspot of Misrata, a victory over Haftar is the main goal. During the fighting around Benghazi, the militias sent ships from Misrata to supply the Islamists. The hatred of the people in Benghazi towards the western part of the country is especially strong.

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