From The Guardian (16 May) we learn that Soleimani has been meeting with Iraqi militias. Iran's involvement in Iraq is known, but the quote from the article that is key is that Soleimani said that the militias needed to "prepare for proxy war."
The meeting has led to a frenzy of diplomatic activity between US, British and Iraqi officials who are trying to banish the spectre of clashes between Tehran and Washington and who now fear that Iraq could become an arena for conflict . . .
The gathering partly informed a US decision to evacuate non-essential diplomatic staff from the US embassy in Baghdad and Erbil and to raise the threat status at US bases in Iraq . . .
The Trump administration has remained wary of the Iraqi militias. Although they jointly led the fight against Isis, such groups were integrated into the Iraqi state structure, and have drawn increasing comparisons with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps. While they include some Sunni, Christian and Yazidi units, they are dominated by Shia groups, the most powerful of whom enjoy the direct patronage of Iran.
What I find interesting here is the political alliances out of convenience. The US and Iran was aligned in their attempt to defeat ISIS and free Mosul. Once ISIS was largely defeated, Iraq is now becoming a power struggle between former out-of-necessity allies.
The Daily Beast (18 May) also came out with an article on Soleimani. You'd almost think these were planted articles by US intelligence, but then this did occur shortly after this Iran-Iraq meeting.
To give you a sense of where we are in 2019, it pays to consider that Soleimani is now the one with an occupying army. There are an estimated 100,000 men (and boys) under his command and not all are Persian or Arab. They include Pakistanis and Hazara Afghans, refugees from the Taliban who have been dragooned into acting as cannon fodder in Aleppo and Mosul. The ones that lived have gained valuable tactical experience fighting a hodgepodge of Syrian rebels, al-Qaeda, ISIS and in some instances even soldiers of the Iraqi and Syrian armies they didn’t get on with.
Sources within Iran say that he is busy consolidating his interests at home, too. He’s never held with the so-called “reformists” who opted for diplomacy on nuclear weapons, if not creeping rapprochement with the West, only to come away with egg on their faces.
President Trump is right about Iran's Shia Crescent, but was pulling out of the treaty with Iran the right thing to do? Based on this Daily Beast comment, which has a bias written into it, this move made the "reformists" look weak and get "egg on their faces." Did Trump actually strengthen Soleimani? Will Soleimani want to lead Iran some day? I wonder if the Iranian people would vote for him as their leader or if he'd be forced to over-throw the government with his 100,000 military force.
Iran isn't just calling for a proxy war with Iraqi allies. Apparently, he made the same call in Africa. The Telegraph reports:
Iran is setting up a network of terror cells in Africa to attack US and other Western targets in retaliation for Washington’s decision to impose sanctions against Tehran, according to Western security officials . . . The Iranian cells are said to be active in a number of African countries including Sudan, Chad, Ghana, Niger, Gambia and the Central African Republic . . . Intelligence officials say Iran has been working on the new terror network for the past three years since signing the nuclear deal on freezing its uranium enrichment activities with the US and other major world powers in 2015.
This can't be something that is blamed on President Trump pulling out of the nuclear agreement. The article specifically states that Iran has been working on these terror networks since the signing of the agreement.
This article indicates that Soleimani isn't just interested in creating the Shia Crescent. He has now moved on to Africa. Look at the list of countries and then take a look at a globe. Those countries reach from the Red Sea to the Atlantic. Also, Chad rebels have been involved in Libya. It would be interesting to learn more about Iran's role in Chad. Do they just have terrorist cells in Chad? Is Iran aligned with Chad rebels? Are they aligned with the government? And is this playing a role in the support that France, Russia, UAE, United States and various other countries are giving Haftar in Libya?
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