Libya: Haftar's Military Loss and Loss of International Support?

Haftar's Libya National Army (LNA) was dealt a major defeat on Wednesday, June 26th. Via Reuters:

Forces allied to Libya’s internationally recognized government on Wednesday seized the town of Gharyan south of Tripoli, home to the main supply base of eastern forces attacking the capital, witnesses and Tripoli officials said . . . Gharyan was until Wednesday the main forward base for the LNA where troops, weapons and ammunition arrived from the East. The LNA began its Tripoli campaign here.

Haftar has been fighting to the south of Tripoli since April 4th without any real progress (from what I've read). Now he's suffered a major defeat. It isn't mentioned, but I wonder how many weapons and ammunition was taken by the Government of National Accord (GNA) forces.



Also, is Haftar losing the support of the Russians? We already know that President Trump has lost interest. Via The Guardian:

With Haftar’s offensive stalled on the outskirts of Tripoli, Trump’s fleeting enthusiasm for Haftar has waned, and the lead on Libya policy has been handed back to the state department.

Now President Trump's interest in foreign entanglements does tend to wane rather quickly if victory isn't swift. We also know that he has lost interest in Venezuela.

But Hafter losing the support of the Russians, also?

Via Al-Monitor:

At the same time, the field marshal’s latest covert visit to Russia last month also was hardly successful. Sources privy to the visit and associated discussions told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that contrary to the reports of pro-Libyan National Army media, the military leader “certainly didn’t meet President [Vladimir] Putin" and did not see Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu either. While the source didn’t indicate whom exactly Hifter met while in Moscow, it’s believed his contacts came down to negotiations with Mikhail Bogdanov, deputy foreign minister and special presidential envoy for the Middle East. 

The Russians basically delegated Hafter to an underling. The article goes on to say that the Russians are now leaning towards dialogue with the GNA versus war. Hafter probably over-promised to the Russians and Americans. And the Russians and Americans probably under-estimated the level of support Tripoli would get from various militia.

My thinking: even though the GNA appears to have the upper hand, they probably have an incentive to deal with Hafter. If Hafter gets over-thrown, that could result in chaos for the east and the south. So even though Hafter attempted to invade Tripoli, I believe he's the one the GNA should work with. Yet, I have to believe that Hafter is being targeted by his rivals in the east. He over-stretched, he's losing support from the Americans and Russians, Turkey appears to be strongly behind Tripoli, the strong man is vulnerable. So my bet is that the GNA won't really get a chance to work with Hafter (LNA) as he's on his way out. This implies that we'll see chaos continue in Libya for the foreseeable future. Let's see how my prediction holds.