Venezuela: April 30th Coup Attempt

Last week had an interesting coup attempt occur in Venezuela. From various articles, it appears that opposition leader Juan Guaido thought he had the support of the following Maduro loyalists:

Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino
Supreme Court Chief Judge Maikel Moreno
Presidential Guard Commander Ivan Rafael Hernandez Dala
Spy Chief Manuel Figuera

How did things unfold on Tuesday, April 30th?

From Reuters:

Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido on Tuesday made his strongest call yet to the military to help him oust President Nicolas Maduro but there were no concrete signs of defection from the armed forces leadership. Early on Tuesday, several dozen armed troops accompanying Guaido clashed with soldiers supporting Maduro at a rally in Caracas, and large anti-government protests in the streets turned violent. But by Tuesday afternoon an uneasy peace had returned and there was no indication that the opposition planned to take power through military force.



The Washington Post fills in some details:

Leopoldo López — the country’s most famous political prisoner and mentor of opposition leader Juan Guaidó — helped broker a deal. While still under house arrest, he had met in secret with top Maduro loyalists — including the defense minister — inside López’s cement compound in eastern Caracas, one of several locations where clandestine meetings took place. The agreement: The loyalists would give Maduro up, and retain their positions inside a new interim government headed by Guaidó.

The Washington Post adds that Guaido showed up at the La Carlota air base, but then none of the top Maduro officials showed up to lend their support. Soon after, López had to flee to the Chilean and Spanish embassies. And Spy Chief Figuera fled the country, likely to the United States. The Reuters article mentions that Padrino later appeared on national television next to Maduro.

Those appear to be the timeline of events. But why exactly did this coup attempt fail and what does the near future hold for Maduro and Guaido? That's where a lot of political spin and reading the tea leaves occurs.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo states that Maduro was about to flee the country, but that the Russians told him not to do so. Via The Guardian:

Russian and Venezuelan officials have denied a US claim that Nicolás Maduro planned to flee his country during Tuesday’s failed coup attempt until the Kremlin told him to stay. The assertion by the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, was part of an “information war”, said Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry. 

Should one believe the United States or Russia on this topic? Who knows.

The various articles bring up other thoughts:

1. Did Guaido get played by senior Maduro officials? Considering that Defense Minister Padrino was seen on national television next to Maduro would seem to indicate this. Maybe it was also a fishing exercise by Maduro to see who might not be loyal. This might explain why his Spy Chief has fled the country. Also, are the four names that I listed above being mentioned by the opposition and the United States to cause trust issues within the Maduro government?

2. Does this attempted coup actually show that Maduro's regime is weak? As some of the articles state, how could political prisoner Leopoldo Lopez just walk out of house arrest? Did his guards just step aside and allow him to leave?

One small note in that Reuters article that might be easy to over-look is that Guaido apparently was accompanied by dozens of armed troops. I wonder if Guaido is making inroads with the military.

My opinion: as long as Russia and China don't turn their backs on Maduro, Maduro is safe.