Middle East: Some Countries Still Need Higher Oil Prices

One thing that recently caught my attention is the fact that tiny oil state of Bahrain needs oil prices to reach $113 in order to break-even. Via Business Insider:

Bahrain's gross government debt could reach 102 percent in 2019 from 94.9 percent this year as the smallest oil producer in the Gulf struggles with one of the highest breakeven crude oil price levels globally, the International Monetary Fund said in the May edition of its Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and North Africa.

Though Bahrain doesn't appear to be suffering through an economic collapse like Venezuela, it is still interesting how these oil countries aren't doing well even with oil prices at around $70. Here's a country where oil prices have recovered significantly since the lows, but their debt ratios are still increasing. In this case, from 94.9% to 102%.



If you go to this IMF link and then go to the Statistical Appendix section, you'll see the fiscal break-evens that the IMF believes needs to be reached for various oil dependent countries in the Middle East. Here are some 2019 highlights:

Bahrain: $110.6
Iran: $71.6
Iraq: $54.4
Kuwait: $48.1
Libya: $113.8
Saudi Arabia: $77.9

I think this potentially indicates which countries will press harder to extend the OPEC/Russia oil caps. Bahrain, Libya and Saudi Arabia all want oil prices to keep rising. Iran is probably neutral at this point. Iraq and Kuwait probably aren't going to press as hard.