This is part 2 of my look into Lebanon's Prime Minister Hariri and his adventures. This is taking a look at my thoughts on why Hariri temporarily resigned from his post while in Saudi Arabia.
So what's going on?
Hariri:
Per the Washington Post:
As a Lebanese-Saudi national, Hariri’s personal business interests have long been buoyed and buffeted by Saudi politics, with the family’s Saudi Oger firm falling heavily into debt as the kingdom’s oil fortunes have fallen . . .
Per the New York Times, Hariri is married with two sons and a daughter. One son appears to live in the UK while the other two are going to school in Saudi Arabia.
The "heavily in debt" comment caught my eye. Is it possible that Saudi Crown Prince MBS accused Hariri of corruption? Hariri was in Saudi Arabia at the same time as a number of other high level individuals in Saudi Arabia were being charged with corruption. Or did MBS make threats regarding Hariri's debt? Maybe he argued that if Hariri didn't resign, Saudi Arabia would financially bankrupt him. Did various leaders from Macron to President Trump to al-Sisi convince MBS that he'd made a big miscalculation?
Lebanon and Saudi Arabia:
Per the Irish Times:
[Hariri] implied he might reverse his resignation if Hezbollah . . . stopped “endangering” Lebanon through involvement in regional conflicts. Hariri reiterated Saudi accusations that Hezbollah is fomenting unrest among Shia Muslims in Yemen, Bahrain and Kuwait.
I think one thought is that Saudi Arabia forced Hariri to resign, because they weren't happy with how Lebanon's government was dealing with Hezbollah. In this The LA Times article, it is stated that Hezbollah kept Syrian rebels out of Lebanon; therefore, keeping Lebanon out of the Syrian civil war. The argument seems to be that Saudi Arabia wanted a Sunni Prime Minister who would be more aggressive with Hezbollah. (In Lebanon, politics are split between three religions. The President is always a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister is a Sunni and the Speaker of the Parliament is a Shia.)
Though that is one common argument, I wonder if this wasn't a very strategic move by both Hariri and Saudi Arabia. Is it possible that they created this move to give Hariri more influence? And did it work? The various linked articles seem to imply that Hariri is now rather popular in Lebanon. Does this give him more political power?
That theory of mine may not hold much water, as the New York Times stated that Hariri reached out to Jordan regarding living in that country, but was denied via pressure from Saudi Arabia. Also, did Hariri perhaps visit Egypt and Cyprus to see if they'd have his political back versus Saudi Arabia's non-support?
France and US:
Per the Irish Times, Macron's diplomacy allowed MBS to "save face." Per the Washington Post, President Trump's administration is not pleased with Saudi Arabia on this matter.
The White House sees Saudi Arabia as key to two major foreign policy goals — bringing Iran to heel and forging a settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. But the administration is less than pleased about recent actions by Riyadh . . .
(I do have one issue with that quote: replacing Hariri with a Prime Minister that would take a more aggressive stance with Hezbollah could be a way to bring "Iran to heel.")
If you go with the standard theory that Saudi Arabia forced the resignation due to Hariri being weak on Hezbollah and therefore Iran . . .
Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US all seem to want to push back on Iran. To me, Saudi Arabia has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting/dirty work in terms of Qatar, Yemen and Lebanon. Egypt appears to be with Saudi Arabia, but wants to stay on the sidelines. Israel probably can't get involved due to Middle East politics. And the US is dealing with Iran via other angles.
So maybe MBS just went too far and both the Irish Times and Washington Post have it right. The US got upset with MBS for a political misstep in Lebanon and Macron came in to try and settle things down. Yet, all arrows still point to an over-all attempt to limit Iran's power in the Middle East.
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