Sweden: Post Christmas Election News

Sweden put discussions regarding forming a new government to the side until after Christmas. For those following Sweden political affairs, elections in September 2018 left both political blocs (Centre Left - Social Democrats, Left Party, Green Party - and Alliance - Moderates, Centre Party, Christian Democrats, Liberals) without enough votes to win a vote on the next Prime Minister. This is driven by the fact that the Sweden Democrats (a far right party) did so well in the elections and neither bloc (or at least a portion of the Alliance bloc) wishes to work with them. Sweden has already attempted two votes for Prime Minister. Both failed and there are two more votes schedules for January 16th and January 23rd. If the next two votes fail, a new election will be held.

The Local (3 January) had the following to say:

On Friday, the leaders of the centre-left Social Democrats and centre-right Moderate Party will meet the parliamentary speaker to update him on any progress made over the Christmas break. The three also spoke directly after Christmas, but a statement from parliamentary speaker Andreas Norlén merely said that he had "taken note of their respective assessments of the process of government formation".

The article also mentions that no one knows who will be running for Prime Minister on the January 16th vote.



Bloomberg (4 January) had the following to say regarding one of the Friday meetings:

Swedish Social Democratic leader Stefan Lofven called on all parties to compromise to break a four-month deadlock after September’s inconclusive election. “The Social Democrats are still prepared to compromise to form a government in the middle of Swedish politics,” he said in a statement to news agency TT. “In the coming week, all parties must make every effort to ensure that Sweden as soon as possible gets a viable government that’s not dependent on the Sweden Democrats."

Basically, just words.

Note: the link has a nice graphic that shows the seats held by various parties.

The Guardian suggests that Centre Party leader Annie Lööf (currently aligned with the Alliance) could become the first female Prime Minister of Sweden. The focus on the Centre Party is partially due to the fact that if they broke ranks with the Alliance and joined the Centre left bloc, a new Prime Minister could get elected. It should be noted that per The Local, Lööf stated during the elections that she would not join up with the Social Democrats (Centre Left party). But then do politicians always keep to their promises? The Guardian ends with:


Only two more formal attempts to form a coalition are allowed before fresh elections must be called on 23 January. If Löfven tacks right and wins Lööf’s support, she could demand high office as a reward, perhaps even very high office. Whether she would get it, of course, is another matter. 

The problem is: would the Centre Left bloc hold together if Löfven tacked right. The Centre left bloc includes Social Democrats (Löfven's party), Green Party and the Left Party. I suspect either the Green or Left would walk in a situation where the more conservative Lööf was to be Prime Minister over Löfven.

My bet is that forming a government over the next two rounds or having another election depends on polling. If it looks like the Centre left bloc is gaining in the polls, then the Centre Party might switch in order to gain political power (and hope that their voters forgive them by the next election). If the Alliance looks like it is gaining in the polls, the Centre Party will stay and a new election will occur.

Of course, US New and World Report reported in December:

The Sweden Democrats, who want to turn away asylum seekers and hold a vote on EU membership, won 17.5 percent of the vote in September and could increase that at a snap election, polls show. The Greens and Liberals could drop below the 4 percent threshold for seats in parliament.

That, of course, makes the political calculations even more interesting as the party no one wants to deal with could become even more politically powerful if new elections are held. Luckily for them, they probably get to sit on the side lines while the two political blocs throw mud at each other.